Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya Kwanza

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Ushirika Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Nassor H.
37' Event
61' Event

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara game between Polisi Tanzania and Mbeya Kwanza finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Polisi Tanzania.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Polisi Tanzania
6%
Draws
4%
Mbeya Kwanza
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Polisi Tanzania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Polisi Tanzania come out ahead of Mbeya Kwanza on wins alone.
  • Model gives Polisi Tanzania a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Polisi Tanzania Clean Sheet 20%
Mbeya Kwanza Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Polisi Tanzania Mbeya Kwanza
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 4
Draws 6 6
Losses 16 20
Goals Scored 1 0.2
Goals Conceded 0.88 2.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya Kwanza
3:1
Jun 28, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya Kwanza vs Polisi Tanzania
0:4
Apr 16, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya Kwanza
1:1
Nov 1, 2021 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya Kwanza vs Polisi Tanzania
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Polisi Tanzania Compare

Top Goalscorer Nassor H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Athuman R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Mbeya Kwanza Compare

Avg xG / game 0.18
Avg xA / game 0.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Polisi Tanzania 85 / 100
Mbeya Kwanza 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Polisi Tanzania Mbeya Kwanza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbeya Kwanza let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Mbeya Kwanza has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Polisi Tanzania scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Polisi Tanzania VS Mbeya Kwanza
1 Goals Scored 0.2
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.8
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Tanzania Prisons0
Mbeya City2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Polisi Tanzania7
Mbeya Kwanza1
Final
Mbeya City-
TBD-
Tanzania Prisons1
Polisi Tanzania4