Sport Picks

Ponferradina vs Racing Santander - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain

Copa del Rey 2025/2026 Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada

Ponferradina

Thu, Dec 4, 2025

1 - 2

07:00 PM

Racing Santander

Our Tip

Match Events

11'

Gueye M.

46'

Sub

Gueye M. In: Sainz-Maza I.

Out: Gueye M.

46'

Sub

Camara S. In: Castro J.

Out: Camara S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Racing Santander advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

Ponferradina

20%

Draws

34%

Racing Santander

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ponferradina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence

Racing Santander's 1.9 goals per match outpaces what Ponferradina have produced (1.1).
46% — that's where the model lands on Ponferradina taking it.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Racing Santander, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Ponferradina Clean Sheet 16%

Racing Santander Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ponferradina	Racing Santander
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	14	14
Draws	9	4
Losses	7	11
Goals Scored	1.1	1.9
Goals Conceded	0.9	2.03
Expected Goals (xG)	1.81	1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 4, 2025 Copa del Rey

Ponferradina vs Racing Santander

1:2

Feb 5, 2023 LaLiga2

Ponferradina vs Racing Santander

1:1

Oct 23, 2022 LaLiga2

Racing Santander vs Ponferradina

1:1

Jun 24, 2020 LaLiga2

Ponferradina vs Racing Santander

1:1

Nov 10, 2019 LaLiga2

Racing Santander vs Ponferradina

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ponferradina Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferrer P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.39

Avg xA / game 0.91

Racing Santander Compare

Top Goalscorer Arana J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Aldasoro A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.31

Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ponferradina 84 / 100

Racing Santander 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ponferradina Racing Santander

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ponferradina Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Racing Santander's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

Ponferradina's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Ponferradina has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ponferradina VS Racing Santander

1.25 Goals Scored 2

0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38

63% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 88%

13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ponferradina

(Home)

04 Oct

Ponferradina

1 : 0

Mirandes

27 Sept

Pontevedra

1 : 1

Ponferradina

19 Sept

Ponferradina

1 : 0

AD Merida

13 Sept

Deportivo Fabril

2 : 1

Ponferradina

04 Sept

Ponferradina

0 : 0

Lugo

Page 1 of 6

Racing Santander

(Away)

19 Sept

Celta Vigo

5 : 0

Racing Santander

16 Sept

Barcelona

7 : 2

Racing Santander

12 Sept

Racing Santander

2 : 1

Alaves

05 Sept

Rayo Vallecano

3 : 2

Racing Santander

28 Aug

Racing Santander

3 : 2

Elche

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Mutilvera -

TBD -

Zaragoza -

Atletico Tordesillas -

TBD -

Burgos CF -

Navalcarnero -

TBD -

AD Merida -

Inter de Valdemoro 4

Univ. Julio Suarez 2

TBD -

Getafe -

Atletico Astorga -

TBD -

Mirandes -

Caudal Deportivo -

TBD -

Gijon -

Puente Genil -

TBD -

FC Cartagena SAD -

Sporting Ceuta 1

Maracena 3

TBD -

Valencia -

CD Tropezon -

TBD -

Leonesa -

Valle Egues -

TBD -

FC Andorra -

Ciudad Cieza -

TBD -

Cordoba -

Orihuela -

TBD -

Levante -

Ourense CF -

TBD -

Real Oviedo -

Constancia -

TBD -

Girona -

TBD -

Ath Bilbao -

Portugalete -

TBD -

Valladolid -

Deportivo Getxo 2

Betis Valladolid 1

TBD -

Alaves -

CD Extremadura -

TBD -

Las Palmas -

Toledo -

TBD -

Sevilla -

RSD Alcala -

TBD -

Tenerife -

Roda -

TBD -

Granada CF -

Real Avila -

TBD -

Real Aviles -

Campanario 0

CD Yuncos 2

TBD -

Rayo Vallecano -

Jaen -

TBD -

Eldense -

Lorca Deportiva -

TBD -

Almeria -

Reus FC Reddis -

TBD -

CE Europa -

Textil Escudo 2

SD Negreira 5

TBD -

Real Sociedad -

Langreo -

TBD -

Racing Club Ferrol -

Utebo FC -

TBD -

Huesca -

Ebro -

TBD -

Tarazona -

CD Sant Jordi 4

CD Lourdes 1

TBD -

Osasuna -

CD Azuaga -

TBD -

Leganes -

UD San Fernando -

TBD -

Albacete -

Sant Andreu -

TBD -

Teruel -

Puerto de Vega 5

CCD Alberite 1

TBD -

Celta Vigo -

Rayo Majadahonda -

TBD -

CF Talavera -

CD Estepona -

TBD -

Malaga -

TBD -

Real Madrid -

UD Logrones -

TBD -

Ponferradina -

SD Logrones -

TBD -

Racing Santander -

Antoniano -

TBD -

Castellon -

Ciudad de Lucena -

TBD -

Villarreal -

Guadalajara -

TBD -

Cacereno -

La Union (Malacitano) -

TBD -

AD Ceuta -

TBD -

Barcelona -

Murcia -

TBD -

Antequera -

UCAM Murcia -

TBD -

Cadiz -

Torrent -

TBD -

Torremolinos -

Atletico Melilla 0

Atletico Palma del Rio 10

TBD -

Betis -

UD Ourense -

TBD -

Pontevedra -

Naxara -

TBD -

Eibar -

Quintanar del Rey -

TBD -

UD Ibiza -

Manises 2

UD Los Garres 4

TBD -

Elche -

UD Poblense -

TBD -

Sabadell -

UD Samano -

TBD -

Dep. A Coruna -

Numancia -

TBD -

Arenas Getxo -

Atletic Sant Just FC 7

Atletico Calatayud 1

TBD -

Mallorca -

Baleares -

TBD -

Gimnastic de Tarragona -

CE Atletic Lleida -

TBD -

Espanyol -

TBD -

Atl. Madrid -

1/64-finals

Mutilvera 1

Zaragoza 3

Atletico Tordesillas 1

Burgos CF 2

Navalcarnero 2

AD Merida 1

Inter de Valdemoro 0

Getafe 11

Atletico Astorga 1

Mirandes 2

Caudal Deportivo 0

Gijon 1

Puente Genil 0

FC Cartagena SAD 1

Maracena 0

Valencia 5

CD Tropezon 1

Leonesa 3

Valle Egues 1

FC Andorra 5

Ciudad Cieza 1

Cordoba 0

Orihuela 3

Levante 4

Ourense CF 4

Real Oviedo 2

Constancia 2

Girona 3

TBD -

Ath Bilbao -

Portugalete 1

Valladolid 0

Deportivo Getxo 0

Alaves 7

CD Extremadura 3

Las Palmas 1

Toledo 1

Sevilla 4

RSD Alcala 0

Tenerife 4

Roda 1

Granada CF 5

Real Avila 1

Real Aviles 0

CD Yuncos 1

Rayo Vallecano 6

Jaen 1

Eldense 3

Lorca Deportiva 0

Almeria 2

Reus FC Reddis 3

CE Europa 2

SD Negreira 0

Real Sociedad 3

Langreo 0

Racing Club Ferrol 1

Utebo FC 0

Huesca 3

Ebro 2

Tarazona 1

CD Sant Jordi 0

Osasuna 5

CD Azuaga 1

Leganes 4

UD San Fernando 0

Albacete 3

Sant Andreu 2

Teruel 1

Puerto de Vega 0

Celta Vigo 2

Rayo Majadahonda 1

CF Talavera 4

CD Estepona 1

Malaga 3

TBD -

Real Madrid -

UD Logrones 1

Ponferradina 3

SD Logrones 0

Racing Santander 4

Antoniano 1

Castellon 0

Ciudad de Lucena 0

Villarreal 6

Guadalajara 2

Cacereno 1

La Union (Malacitano) 0

AD Ceuta 2

TBD -

Barcelona -

Murcia 2

Antequera 1

UCAM Murcia 1

Cadiz 3

Torrent 3

Torremolinos 1

Atletico Palma del Rio 1

Betis 7

UD Ourense 1

Pontevedra 2

Naxara 2

Eibar 4

Quintanar del Rey 2

UD Ibiza 1

UD Los Garres 0

Elche 4

UD Poblense 1

Sabadell 2

UD Samano 1

Dep. A Coruna 5

Numancia 3

Arenas Getxo 0

Atletic Sant Just FC 0

Mallorca 2

Baleares 2

Gimnastic de Tarragona 0

CE Atletic Lleida 1

Espanyol 2

TBD -

Atl. Madrid -

1/32-finals

Zaragoza 0

Burgos CF 1

Navalcarnero 2

Getafe 3

Mirandes 0

Gijon 2

FC Cartagena SAD 1

Valencia 2

Leonesa 4

FC Andorra 2

Ciudad Cieza 0

Levante 1

Ourense CF 2

Girona 1

TBD -

Ath Bilbao -

Portugalete 0

Alaves 3

CD Extremadura 1

Sevilla 2

Tenerife 0

Granada CF 1

Real Avila 1

Rayo Vallecano 2

Eldense 2

Almeria 1

Reus FC Reddis 0

Real Sociedad 2

Racing Club Ferrol 0

Huesca 2

Ebro 3

Osasuna 5

Leganes 1

Albacete 2

Sant Andreu 1

Celta Vigo 2

CF Talavera 2

Malaga 1

TBD -

Real Madrid -

Ponferradina 1

Racing Santander 2

Antoniano 1

Villarreal 2

Guadalajara 1

AD Ceuta 0

TBD -

Barcelona -

Murcia 3

Cadiz 2

Torrent 1

Betis 4

Pontevedra 0

Eibar 3

Quintanar del Rey 1

Elche 2

Sabadell 0

Dep. A Coruna 2

Numancia 2

Mallorca 3

Baleares 1

Espanyol 0

TBD -

Atl. Madrid -

1/16-finals

Burgos CF 3

Getafe 1

Gijon 0

Valencia 2

Leonesa 1

Levante 0

Ourense CF 0

Ath Bilbao 1

Alaves 1

Sevilla 0

Granada CF 1

Rayo Vallecano 3

Eldense 1

Real Sociedad 2

Huesca 2

Osasuna 4

Albacete 3

Celta Vigo 2

CF Talavera 2

Real Madrid 3

Racing Santander 2

Villarreal 1

Guadalajara 0

Barcelona 2

Murcia 0

Betis 2

Eibar 0

Elche 1

Dep. A Coruna 1

Mallorca 0

Baleares 2

Atl. Madrid 3

1/8-finals

Burgos CF 0

Valencia 2

Leonesa 3

Ath Bilbao 4

Alaves 2

Rayo Vallecano 0

Real Sociedad 3

Osasuna 2

Albacete 3

Real Madrid 2

Racing Santander 0

Barcelona 2

Betis 2

Elche 1

Dep. A Coruna 0

Atl. Madrid 1

Quarter-finals

Albacete 1

Barcelona 2

Betis 0

Atl. Madrid 5

Valencia 1

Ath Bilbao 2

Alaves 2

Real Sociedad 3

Semi-finals

Barcelona 3

Atl. Madrid 4

Ath Bilbao 0

Real Sociedad 2

Final

Atl. Madrid 2

Real Sociedad 3

Ponferradina vs Racing Santander - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain

Ponferradina

Racing Santander

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Ponferradina Compare

Racing Santander Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Ponferradina

Racing Santander

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Install Sokapicks PWA