Sport Picks
Ponferradina vs Real Aviles - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada 
Match Events
19'
19'
Vazquez B.
23'
23'
Gomez A.
26'
26'
Keita A.
AI Match Summary
The Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Ponferradina and Real Aviles finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ponferradina.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
35%
25%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ponferradina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Ponferradina come out ahead of Real Aviles on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Ponferradina Clean Sheet 68%
Real Aviles Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ponferradina | Real Aviles |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 14 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.84 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Ponferradina vs Real Aviles
1:1
May 9, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina vs Real Aviles
3:1
Aug 31, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Real Aviles vs Ponferradina
0:3
Aug 2, 2023 Club Friendly
Ponferradina vs Real Aviles
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ponferradina Compare
Top Goalscorer Vazquez B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Keita A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Real Aviles Compare
Top Goalscorer Babin J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ponferradina 41 / 100
Real Aviles 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ponferradina Real Aviles
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ponferradina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Real Aviles let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.
Attacking prowess: Ponferradina scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Ponferradina remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Ponferradina VS Real Aviles
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ponferradina
(Home) 04 Oct
Ponferradina
1 : 0 Mirandes
27 Sept
Pontevedra
1 : 1 Ponferradina
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0 AD Merida
13 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
2 : 1 Ponferradina
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Lugo
Page 1 of 7
04 Oct
Ponferradina
1 : 0 Mirandes
19 Sept
Ponferradina
1 : 0 AD Merida
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0 Lugo
19 Aug
Ponferradina
2 : 2 Real Madrid B
05 Aug
Ponferradina
1 : 2 Unionistas de Salamanca
Page 1 of 4
Real Aviles
(Away) 02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2 Lugo
27 Sept
Barakaldo
3 : 3 Real Aviles
19 Sept
CD Coria
1 : 1 Real Aviles
12 Sept
Real Aviles
3 : 1 Unionistas de Salamanca
06 Sept
Ath Bilbao B
2 : 1 Real Aviles
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Barakaldo
3 : 3 Real Aviles
19 Sept
CD Coria
1 : 1 Real Aviles
06 Sept
Ath Bilbao B
2 : 1 Real Aviles
15 Aug
CD Mosconia
0 : 2 Real Aviles
13 Aug
Racing Club Ferrol
1 : 1 Real Aviles
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tenerife | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 62:24 | 76 |
| 2 | Celta Vigo B | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 61:48 | 65 |
| 3 | Zamora | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 53:42 | 61 |
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 43:33 | 60 |
| 5 | Real Madrid B | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 61:52 | 58 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 49:31 | 58 |
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51:38 | 58 |
| 8 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 53:49 | 56 |
| 9 | Lugo | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36:40 | 53 |
| 10 | AD Merida | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47:53 | 52 |
| 11 | Arenas Getxo | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 46:55 | 52 |
| 12 | Racing Club Ferrol | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 41:47 | 49 |
| 13 | Ath Bilbao B | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 38:46 | 49 |
| 14 | Real Aviles | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 55:67 | 44 |
| 15 | Cacereno | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 42:49 | 44 |
| 16 | CF Talavera | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 38:47 | 43 |
| 17 | Ourense CF | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 44:47 | 43 |
| 18 | Guadalajara | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 44:58 | 41 |
| 19 | Osasuna B | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 28:42 | 40 |
| 20 | Arenteiro | 38 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 29:53 | 28 |
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
