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Stadium Background

Pontardawe vs Treowen - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Dorward J.
8' Event
Gameson T.
18' Event
Dorward J.

AI Match Summary

Pontardawe in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 6-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pontardawe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Pontardawe
15%
Draws
34%
Treowen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pontardawe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Treowen lately — more wins on the board than Pontardawe.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Pontardawe Clean Sheet 10%
Treowen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pontardawe Treowen
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.52 1.83
Goals Conceded 2.31 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Cymru South
Pontardawe vs Treowen
6:1
Oct 1, 2011 FAW Welsh Cup
Pontardawe vs Treowen
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pontardawe Compare

Top Goalscorer Dorward J.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Meacock J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Treowen Compare

Top Goalscorer Gameson T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pontardawe 34 / 100
Treowen 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pontardawe Treowen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Treowen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Pontardawe's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Treowen let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Away concern: Treowen has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pontardawe VS Treowen
1.38 Goals Scored 2.5
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Pontardawe

(Home)
03 Oct
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 3
Pontardawe
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
11 Sept
Pure Swansea
4 : 0
Pontardawe
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
21 Aug
Afan Lido
1 : 0
Pontardawe
Page 1 of 6

Treowen

(Away)
03 Oct
Treowen
1 : 2
Ynyshir Albions
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 8 6 2 0 25:6 20
2 Aberystwyth 8 6 1 1 22:8 19
3 Pontypridd United 9 6 1 2 23:16 19
4 Caerau Ely 9 5 1 3 21:18 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 11:11 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 20:19 14
7 Ynyshir Albions 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
8 Treowen 9 4 1 4 18:18 13
9 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 13:17 11
10 Trethomas Bluebirds 9 2 4 3 17:17 10
11 Pontardawe 8 3 0 5 14:16 9
12 Newport City 7 2 2 3 10:6 8
13 Cardiff Draconians 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
14 Caerphilly 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
15 Llantwit Major 8 2 1 5 7:20 7
16 Llanelli 10 0 2 8 7:27 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)