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Ponte da Barca vs Celoricense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sat, Nov 28, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ponte da Barca host Celoricense in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group A. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Ponte da Barca at 0.72 goals for, 1.66 against; Celoricense at 0.97 for, 0.9 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.06, favoring Celoricense. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Ponte da Barca
30%
Draws
16%
Celoricense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ponte da Barca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Celoricense come out ahead of Ponte da Barca on wins alone.
  • Ponte da Barca are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Ponte da Barca Clean Sheet 20%
Celoricense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ponte da Barca Celoricense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 3 12
Losses 20 7
Goals Scored 0.72 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.66 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ponte da Barca 58 / 100
Celoricense 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ponte da Barca Celoricense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ponte da Barca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Ponte da Barca remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Celoricense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Ponte da Barca's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Celoricense let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ponte da Barca VS Celoricense
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ponte da Barca

(Home)
01 Nov
Ponte da Barca
2 : 1
Vinhais
25 Oct
CDC Montalegre
0 : 1
Ponte da Barca
11 Oct
Ponte da Barca
0 : 0
Rebordosa
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
GD Braganca
3 : 0
Ponte da Barca
Page 1 of 6

Celoricense

(Away)
01 Nov
Celoricense
0 : 0
Rebordosa
25 Oct
AD Limianos
3 : 2
Celoricense
11 Oct
Celoricense
0 : 0
Vila Mea
20 Sept
GD Braganca
6 : 1
Celoricense
13 Sept
Chaves B
1 : 0
Celoricense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AD Limianos 7 5 2 0 17:10 17
2 Braga B 7 4 3 0 14:7 15
3 GD Braganca 7 4 1 2 9:6 13
4 CDC Montalegre 7 3 3 1 9:4 12
5 Tirsense 7 4 0 3 13:10 12
6 Chaves B 7 4 0 3 9:6 12
7 Ponte da Barca 7 3 1 3 7:9 10
8 Rebordosa 7 2 3 2 10:3 9
9 Celoricense 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
10 Vila Mea 7 2 3 2 10:8 9
11 Maia Lidador 7 2 2 3 9:9 8
12 Brito 7 2 0 5 9:17 6
13 Maria de Fonte 7 1 1 5 4:12 4
14 Vinhais 7 0 0 7 3:22 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)