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Ponte da Barca vs Vila Mea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Martins D.
(Penalty)
87' Event
Guerra L.
90' Event
Costa T.

AI Match Summary

Vila Mea in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group A matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vila Mea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Ponte da Barca
30%
Draws
29%
Vila Mea
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ponte da Barca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Vila Mea have won more games recently than Ponte da Barca.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Ponte da Barca Clean Sheet 22%
Vila Mea Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ponte da Barca Vila Mea
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 3 13
Losses 20 9
Goals Scored 0.72 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Ponte da Barca vs Vila Mea
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ponte da Barca Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerra L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Vila Mea Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ponte da Barca 32 / 100
Vila Mea 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ponte da Barca Vila Mea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Mea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Vila Mea conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ponte da Barca remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Ponte da Barca scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ponte da Barca VS Vila Mea
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ponte da Barca

(Home)
01 Nov
Ponte da Barca
2 : 1
Vinhais
25 Oct
CDC Montalegre
0 : 1
Ponte da Barca
11 Oct
Ponte da Barca
0 : 0
Rebordosa
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
GD Braganca
3 : 0
Ponte da Barca
Page 1 of 6

Vila Mea

(Away)
01 Nov
Braga B
2 : 2
Vila Mea
25 Oct
Vila Mea
1 : 3
Brito
11 Oct
Celoricense
0 : 0
Vila Mea
13 Sept
Vila Mea
4 : 0
Vinhais
06 Sept
Rebordosa
1 : 0
Vila Mea
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AD Limianos 7 5 2 0 17:10 17
2 Braga B 7 4 3 0 14:7 15
3 GD Braganca 7 4 1 2 9:6 13
4 CDC Montalegre 7 3 3 1 9:4 12
5 Tirsense 7 4 0 3 13:10 12
6 Chaves B 7 4 0 3 9:6 12
7 Ponte da Barca 7 3 1 3 7:9 10
8 Rebordosa 7 2 3 2 10:3 9
9 Celoricense 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
10 Vila Mea 7 2 3 2 10:8 9
11 Maia Lidador 7 2 2 3 9:9 8
12 Brito 7 2 0 5 9:17 6
13 Maria de Fonte 7 1 1 5 4:12 4
14 Vinhais 7 0 0 7 3:22 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)