Sport Picks

Wales

FA Cup 2017/2018

Pencoed

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pontyclun FC play Pencoed in the FA Cup 2017/2018. Pencoed are favorites here. Recently, Pontyclun FC averaged 1.43 goals scored and 2.57 conceded. Pencoed averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. In past meetings, Pontyclun FC won 0, Pencoed won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 7, 2017 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Pontyclun FC and 2.13 for Pencoed. This points to a Pencoed double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%

Pontyclun FC

15%

Draws

60%

Pencoed

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pencoed

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

Pontyclun FC picked up more points recently compared to Pencoed.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 2.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 74%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 74%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 22%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Pontyclun FC Clean Sheet 10%

Pencoed Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pontyclun FC	Pencoed
Matches Played	14	8
Wins	3	3
Draws	0	0
Losses	11	5
Goals Scored	1.43	1.88
Goals Conceded	2.57	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2017 FA Cup

Pontyclun FC vs Pencoed

Possession: 46% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pontyclun FC 25 / 100

Pencoed 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pontyclun FC Pencoed

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pencoed Win (2)

Secondary Pick Pencoed & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +47%

5.88

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.8%

1.47

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pontyclun FC attacking → ← attacking Pencoed

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pontyclun FC scored in 57% of their last 14 games.

Pencoed let in goals in 75% of their last 8 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Pontyclun FC went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Pencoed lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 9

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88