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Pontypridd United vs Trethomas Bluebirds

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026 USW Sports Park
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Thomas J.
45' Event
Edwards E.
76' Event
Edwards E.

AI Match Summary

Pontypridd United in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pontypridd United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Pontypridd United
39%
Draws
31%
Trethomas Bluebirds
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pontypridd United lately — more wins on the board than Trethomas Bluebirds.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Trethomas Bluebirds have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Pontypridd United Clean Sheet 10%
Trethomas Bluebirds Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pontypridd United Trethomas Bluebirds
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 11 6
Draws 7 10
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 2 2.13
Goals Conceded 2 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Pontypridd United
4:2
Nov 28, 2025 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Trethomas Bluebirds
2:1
Apr 12, 2025 Cymru South
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Pontypridd United
4:0
Sep 14, 2024 Cymru South
Pontypridd United vs Trethomas Bluebirds
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pontypridd United Compare

Top Goalscorer Edwards E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Trethomas Bluebirds Compare

Top Goalscorer Thomas J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pontypridd United 29 / 100
Trethomas Bluebirds 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pontypridd United Trethomas Bluebirds

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Trethomas Bluebirds let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Pontypridd United's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Pontypridd United has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pontypridd United VS Trethomas Bluebirds
2 Goals Scored 2.13
2 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Trefelin30253283:1778
2Cambrian United30244275:2076
3Ammanford Town30179449:2660
4Caerau Ely30176766:3457
5Carmarthen Town301112745:3845
6Aberystwyth301351235:3844
7Cardiff Draconians301241450:4840
8Llantwit Major309101144:4737
9Treowen301071351:6337
10Newport City309101136:4837
11Pontypridd United30971446:5134
12Afan Lido30931832:5730
13Trethomas Bluebirds306111345:6229
14Baglan Dragons305101526:5225
15Ynyshir Albions30581727:5623
16Cwmbran Celtic30172225:7810