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Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town

England England

FA Cup Vale Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Port Vale play Fleetwood Town in the FA Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Port Vale averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Fleetwood Town averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Port Vale won 2, Fleetwood Town won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jan 9, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Port Vale and 1.50 for Fleetwood Town. This points to a Port Vale double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Port Vale
30%
Draws
31%
Fleetwood Town
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Port Vale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Port Vale picked up more points recently compared to Fleetwood Town.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Port Vale Clean Sheet 16%
Fleetwood Town Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 55%
Second Half Goal 58%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Port Vale Fleetwood Town
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 9, 2026 FA Cup
Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town
1:0
Nov 11, 2025 EFL Trophy
Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town
3:4
Mar 8, 2025 League Two
Fleetwood Town vs Port Vale
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 League Two
Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town
3:1
Feb 27, 2024 League One
Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Port Vale Compare

Top Goalscorer Shipley J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Fleetwood Town Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Port Vale 38 / 100
Fleetwood Town 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Port Vale Fleetwood Town

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Port Vale or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Port Vale attacking → ← attacking Fleetwood Town

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Port Vale scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

Fleetwood Town let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Port Vale went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Fleetwood Town lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 37
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50