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Port Vale vs Grimsby - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two Vale Park, Stoke on Trent
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Port Vale host Grimsby in the League Two. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Grimsby have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while Port Vale have conceded 1.32 and scored 0.93. Past meetings favor Grimsby slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 21, 2025, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 1.38, favoring Grimsby. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Port Vale
15%
Draws
28%
Grimsby
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Port Vale

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Grimsby carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Port Vale Clean Sheet 68%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Port Vale Grimsby
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 5 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 0.93 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2025 League Two
Port Vale vs Grimsby
2:2
Dec 29, 2024 League Two
Grimsby vs Port Vale
3:0
Jul 21, 2023 Club Friendly
Port Vale vs Grimsby
1:1
May 1, 2021 League Two
Grimsby vs Port Vale
1:0
Jan 9, 2021 League Two
Port Vale vs Grimsby
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Port Vale 41 / 100
Grimsby 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Port Vale Grimsby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Port Vale Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grimsby let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Grimsby has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Port Vale scored in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Port Vale VS Grimsby
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Port Vale

(Home)
06 Oct
Port Vale
2 : 0
Mansfield
22 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 1
Port Vale
19 Sept
Walsall
2 : 0
Port Vale
12 Sept
Port Vale
1 : 0
Exeter
05 Sept
Salford
1 : 0
Port Vale
Page 1 of 6

Grimsby

(Away)
06 Oct
Grimsby
0 : 1
Burton
03 Oct
Grimsby
1 : 2
Shrewsbury
26 Sept
Newport
2 : 1
Grimsby
22 Sept
Notts County
2 : 1
Grimsby
19 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0
Crawley Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 9 5 1 3 13:10 16
2 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
3 Crewe 9 3 6 0 11:7 15
4 Cheltenham 9 4 3 2 16:14 15
5 Bristol Rovers 9 5 0 4 14:14 15
6 York City 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
7 Walsall 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
8 Chesterfield 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
9 Grimsby 9 3 4 2 13:10 13
10 Gillingham 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
11 Rochdale 9 4 1 4 10:11 13
12 Tranmere 9 2 5 2 12:12 11
13 Swindon 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
14 Shrewsbury 9 3 2 4 9:14 11
15 Newport 9 2 4 3 12:12 10
16 Accrington 9 2 4 3 13:14 10
17 Rotherham 9 2 4 3 11:12 10
18 Fleetwood Town 9 2 4 3 9:10 10
19 Colchester 8 2 4 2 10:12 10
20 Exeter 9 2 3 4 5:6 9
21 Oldham 8 2 1 5 9:13 7
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)