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Porthmadog vs Bala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru North
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Kelly T.
48' Event
Fisher C.
57' Event
Baum L. O.

AI Match Summary

Bala in this Cymru North matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Porthmadog
20%
Draws
33%
Bala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Porthmadog

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Porthmadog have won more games recently than Bala.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Porthmadog taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Bala have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Porthmadog Clean Sheet 15%
Bala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Porthmadog Bala
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.52 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Cymru North
Porthmadog vs Bala
1:2
Nov 6, 2010 FAW Welsh Cup
Porthmadog vs Bala
0:1
Jan 16, 2010 Cymru Premier
Porthmadog vs Bala
0:2
Aug 28, 2009 Cymru Premier
Bala vs Porthmadog
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Porthmadog Compare

Top Goalscorer Baum L. O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Bala Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelly T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fisher C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Porthmadog 84 / 100
Bala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Porthmadog Bala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Porthmadog Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Porthmadog scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Bala has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Porthmadog went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Porthmadog VS Bala
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Porthmadog

(Home)
03 Oct
Porthmadog
1 : 0
Bangor 1876
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1
Porthmadog
12 Sept
Porthmadog
3 : 0
Ruthin Town
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2
Bala
31 Aug
Holyhead
2 : 2
Porthmadog
Page 1 of 6

Bala

(Away)
03 Oct
Caersws FC
3 : 3
Bala
26 Sept
Bala
2 : 4
Mold Alexandra
15 Sept
Penrhyncoch
0 : 1
Bala
11 Sept
Denbigh
5 : 2
Bala
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2
Bala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers 10 9 0 1 26:6 27
2 Newtown 9 7 1 1 18:3 22
3 Mold Alexandra 10 6 2 2 24:13 20
4 Porthmadog 10 6 2 2 17:11 20
5 Bala 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
6 Caersws FC 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
7 Bangor 1876 10 5 1 4 23:18 16
8 Guilsfield 10 4 4 2 16:12 16
9 Buckley 10 3 3 4 22:17 12
10 Llanuwchllyn 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
11 Rhyl 9 2 3 4 17:19 9
12 Ruthin Town 10 2 2 6 9:20 8
13 Denbigh 10 2 1 7 18:23 7
14 Holyhead 9 2 1 6 11:18 7
15 Gresford 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
16 Penrhyncoch 10 0 1 9 4:30 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)