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Wales

FA Cup 2015/2016

Porthmadog

3 - 1

Bow Street

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The FA Cup 2015/2016 game between Porthmadog and Bow Street finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Porthmadog.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Porthmadog

33%

Draws

27%

Bow Street

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Porthmadog

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Porthmadog come out ahead of Bow Street on wins alone.
Model gives Porthmadog a 40% chance of winning this.
It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal FA Cup 2015/2016 game.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 82%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%

Porthmadog Clean Sheet 11%

Bow Street Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Porthmadog	Bow Street
Matches Played	30	15
Wins	8	7
Draws	3	0
Losses	19	8
Goals Scored	0.5	1.67
Goals Conceded	2	2.33
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	1.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	2.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2015 FA Cup

Porthmadog vs Bow Street

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 1 - 4

3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Porthmadog 38 / 100

Bow Street 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Porthmadog Bow Street

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bow Street's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 15 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Porthmadog scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Porthmadog has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Porthmadog VS Bow Street

0.5 Goals Scored 1.67

2 Goals Conceded 2.33

75% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 100%

25% Over 3.5 33%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals

TNS-

TBD-

Aberystwyth-

Denbigh3

FC Nomads of Connahs Quay1

Cefn Albion3

Conwy Borough5

Aberdare Town3

Cwmbach Royal Stars0

Briton Ferry2

Barry Town3

Cefn Druids4

Gresford0

Bow Street1

Porthmadog3

TBD-

Rhyl-

Flint Town4

Carno FC0

Berriew FC1

Rhostyllen2

TBD-

Newtown-

Cardiff Metropolitan University1

Llantwit Fardre0

Pontypridd United0

Penybont2

Garden Village2

Rhayader1

Ton Pentre0

STM Sports4

Holywell Town FC1

Ruthin Town0

Nantlle Vale FC1

Knighton Town2

Caerleon2

Treharris Athletic1

Butetown FC1

Afan Lido5

Buckley1

Penmaenmawr Phoenix0

Gwalchmai0

Mold Alexandra3

TBD-

Llandudno FC-

Prestatyn3

Corwen2

Hawarden Rangers0

Llanfair United4

TBD-

Connahs Q.-

Port Talbot-

TBD-

Llanelli6

Panteg3

Llwydcoed0

Cambrian United3

Brecon Corinthians1

Aberaeron0

Risca United2

Aberbargoed Buds3

Goytre Utd4

Monmouth2

Undy0

Caerau Ely4

Goytre AFC2

Llantwit Major0

Cwmbran Town1

Dinas Powys4

Llandudno Junction6

Caersws FC1

Llanrug2

Caernarfon3

Penrhyncoch5

Aberffraw0

Waterloo Rovers1

Trearddur Bay7

West End3

Treowen2

Llandrindod0

Cwmbran Celtic3

Bala-

TBD-

Carmarthen Town-

Bangor City-

TBD-

Chirk AAA FC5

Prestatyn Sports0

Pentraeth0

Holyhead8

Guilsfield4

Glantraeth FC2

Queens Park0

Penrhyndeudraeth FC2

Caldicot2

Ebbw Vale F.C.1

Taffs Well1

Cwmamman United2

Haverfordwest-

TBD-

Airbus UK Broughton FC-

1/32-finals

TNS-

TBD-

Aberystwyth-

Denbigh4

Conwy Borough1

Aberdare Town2

Barry Town7

Cefn Druids2

Porthmadog0

TBD-

Rhyl-

Flint Town2

Rhostyllen0

TBD-

Newtown-

Cardiff Metropolitan University4

Penybont2

Garden Village1

STM Sports4

Holywell Town FC6

Knighton Town3

Caerleon0

Afan Lido2

Buckley1

Mold Alexandra0

TBD-

Llandudno FC-

Prestatyn5

Llanfair United3

TBD-

Connahs Q.-

Port Talbot-

TBD-

Llanelli0

Cambrian United2

Brecon Corinthians3

Aberbargoed Buds0

Goytre Utd1

Caerau Ely4

Goytre AFC4

Dinas Powys1

Llandudno Junction0

Caernarfon4

Penrhyncoch4

Trearddur Bay0

West End2

Cwmbran Celtic3

Bala-

TBD-

Carmarthen Town-

Bangor City-

TBD-

Chirk AAA FC0

Holyhead4

Guilsfield3

Penrhyndeudraeth FC2

Caldicot2

Cwmamman United4

Haverfordwest-

TBD-

Airbus UK Broughton FC-

1/16-finals

TNS3

Aberystwyth0

Denbigh1

Barry Town6

Cefn Druids1

Rhyl0

Flint Town0

Newtown2

Cardiff Metropolitan University2

STM Sports0

Holywell Town FC0

Afan Lido1

Buckley1

Llandudno FC0

Prestatyn0

Connahs Q.3

Port Talbot2

Cambrian United1

Brecon Corinthians0

Caerau Ely4

Goytre AFC4

Caernarfon2

Penrhyncoch2

Cwmbran Celtic3

Bala3

Carmarthen Town1

Bangor City1

Holyhead2

Guilsfield3

Cwmamman United0

Haverfordwest0

Airbus UK Broughton FC2

1/8-finals

TNS5

Barry Town2

Cefn Druids0

Newtown6

Cardiff Metropolitan University2

Afan Lido0

Buckley1

Connahs Q.4

Port Talbot3

Caerau Ely0

Goytre AFC3

Cwmbran Celtic5

Bala3

Holyhead1

Guilsfield0

Airbus UK Broughton FC3

Quarter-finals

TNS1

Newtown0

Cardiff Metropolitan University0

Connahs Q.2

Port Talbot2

Cwmbran Celtic1

Bala0

Airbus UK Broughton FC3

Semi-finals

TNS5

Connahs Q.0

Port Talbot0

Airbus UK Broughton FC7

Final

TNS2

Airbus UK Broughton FC0