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Porthmadog vs Caernarfon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Trialist D
31' Event
Gosset D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Porthmadog
30%
Draws
31%
Caernarfon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Porthmadog

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caernarfon lately — more wins on the board than Porthmadog.
  • Model gives Caernarfon a 31% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Porthmadog Clean Sheet 10%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Porthmadog Caernarfon
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 4 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.52 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2025 Club Friendly
Porthmadog vs Caernarfon
1:1
Aug 4, 2023 League Cup
Caernarfon vs Porthmadog
2:3
Dec 26, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Caernarfon vs Porthmadog
3:1
Aug 23, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Porthmadog vs Caernarfon
2:3
Dec 27, 2016 Cymru Alliance
Caernarfon vs Porthmadog
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Porthmadog Compare

Top Goalscorer Trialist D
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Gosset D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Porthmadog 14 / 100
Caernarfon 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Porthmadog Caernarfon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Porthmadog's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Caernarfon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Porthmadog has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Porthmadog VS Caernarfon
1.5 Goals Scored 3.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Porthmadog

(Home)
03 Oct
Porthmadog
1 : 0
Bangor 1876
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1
Porthmadog
12 Sept
Porthmadog
3 : 0
Ruthin Town
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2
Bala
31 Aug
Holyhead
2 : 2
Porthmadog
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Caernarfon

(Away)
03 Oct
Caernarfon
0 : 1
Barry Town
26 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2
Caernarfon
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1
Cambrian United
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1
Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5
Caernarfon
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