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Porthmadog vs Llanidloes Town

Wales Wales

League Cup 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Porthmadog play Llanidloes Town in the League Cup 2023/2024. Porthmadog are favorites here. Recently, Porthmadog averaged 1.37 goals scored and 2.3 conceded. Llanidloes Town averaged 1 goals scored and 3.45 conceded. In past meetings, Porthmadog won 4, Llanidloes Town won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 24, 2024 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.63 for Porthmadog and 1.46 for Llanidloes Town. This points to a Porthmadog double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

66%
Porthmadog
15%
Draws
19%
Llanidloes Town
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Porthmadog

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

92% / Very High Confidence
  • Porthmadog picked up more points recently compared to Llanidloes Town.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.63 vs 1.46 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 74%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 74%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Porthmadog Clean Sheet 16%
Llanidloes Town Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Porthmadog Llanidloes Town
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 3
Draws 3 3
Losses 19 25
Goals Scored 1.37 1
Goals Conceded 2.3 3.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 4.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 24, 2024 Cymru North
Llanidloes Town vs Porthmadog
1:2
Jan 27, 2024 Cymru North
Porthmadog vs Llanidloes Town
0:1
Jul 22, 2023 League Cup
Porthmadog vs Llanidloes Town
4:2
Apr 15, 2023 Cymru North
Porthmadog vs Llanidloes Town
3:0
Jul 30, 2022 Cymru North
Llanidloes Town vs Porthmadog
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Porthmadog Compare

Top Goalscorer Cavanagh S.
4 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Llanidloes Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Smallwood J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.26
Avg xA / game 0.16

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Porthmadog 63 / 100
Llanidloes Town 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Porthmadog Llanidloes Town

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Porthmadog Win (1)
Secondary Pick Porthmadog & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.5%
1.72
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.8%
1.47
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Porthmadog attacking → ← attacking Llanidloes Town

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Porthmadog scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Llanidloes Town let in goals in 97% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Porthmadog went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Llanidloes Town lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 12
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.29
2.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.00