Sport Picks
Porthmadog vs Port Talbot - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 
Match Events
15'
15'
Edwards J.
31'
31'
Jones C.
50'
50'
Morris M.
AI Match Summary
Porthmadog in this FAW Welsh Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
15%
40%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Porthmadog
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Porthmadog have won more games recently than Port Talbot.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Porthmadog taking it.
- Porthmadog have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Port Talbot, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Porthmadog Clean Sheet 11%
Port Talbot Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Porthmadog | Port Talbot |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 0 |
| Losses | 11 | 27 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 0.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.81 | 3.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 22, 2025 FAW Welsh Cup
Porthmadog vs Port Talbot
3:2
Apr 17, 2010 Cymru Premier
Porthmadog vs Port Talbot
0:1
Dec 5, 2009 Cymru Premier
Port Talbot vs Porthmadog
5:0
Apr 4, 2009 Cymru Premier
Porthmadog vs Port Talbot
1:2
Nov 22, 2008 Cymru Premier
Port Talbot vs Porthmadog
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Porthmadog Compare
Top Goalscorer Morris L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Jones C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Port Talbot Compare
Top Goalscorer Edwards J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Morris M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Porthmadog 65 / 100
Port Talbot 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Porthmadog Port Talbot
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Porthmadog Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Porthmadog scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.
Defensive concern: Port Talbot conceded in 97% of 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Porthmadog stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Porthmadog VS Port Talbot
1.75 Goals Scored 2.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Porthmadog
(Home) 03 Oct
Porthmadog
1 : 0 Bangor 1876
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1 Porthmadog
12 Sept
Porthmadog
3 : 0 Ruthin Town
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2 Bala
31 Aug
Holyhead
2 : 2 Porthmadog
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Porthmadog
1 : 0 Bangor 1876
12 Sept
Porthmadog
3 : 0 Ruthin Town
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2 Bala
28 Aug
Porthmadog
1 : 3 Caersws FC
08 Aug
Porthmadog
1 : 0 Rhyl
Page 1 of 4
Port Talbot
(Away) 22 Nov
Porthmadog
3 : 2 Port Talbot
18 Oct
Port Talbot
3 : 1 Afan Lido
20 Sept
Port Talbot
2 : 1 Seven Sisters
11 Jul
Port Talbot
3 : 0 Afan Lido
30 Apr
Trefelin
4 : 0 Port Talbot
Page 1 of 6
22 Nov
Porthmadog
3 : 2 Port Talbot
30 Apr
Trefelin
4 : 0 Port Talbot
15 Apr
Afan Lido
2 : 0 Port Talbot
08 Apr
Briton Ferry
2 : 1 Port Talbot
26 Mar
Cwmbran Celtic
2 : 1 Port Talbot
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
