Sport Picks
Portimonense vs Chaves - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão 
Match Events
7'
7'
Moreira Reis T.
Own Goal
11'
11'
Kusso D.
Assist: Rodrigues A.
21'
21'
Reis J.
Assist: Mateus Sarara
AI Match Summary
Portimonense in this Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portimonense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chaves
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Chaves lately — more wins on the board than Portimonense.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on Portimonense taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Portimonense Clean Sheet 20%
Chaves Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 14 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Portimonense vs Chaves
3:2
Dec 20, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Portimonense
0:1
Apr 12, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Portimonense
2:0
Nov 30, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Portimonense vs Chaves
1:2
Apr 7, 2024 Liga Portugal
Chaves vs Portimonense
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Portimonense Compare
Top Goalscorer Reis J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Pancadas Casimiro J. D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Chaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Kusso D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Simoes T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Portimonense 36 / 100
Chaves 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Portimonense Chaves
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Portimonense's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Chaves let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.
Difficult form: Chaves registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Portimonense VS Chaves
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Portimonense
(Home) 19 Sept
Castro Daire
0 : 1 Portimonense
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2 Tondela
06 Sept
Leiria
1 : 0 Portimonense
29 Aug
Portimonense
0 : 2 Leixoes
21 Aug
Benfica B
1 : 1 Portimonense
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2 Tondela
29 Aug
Portimonense
0 : 2 Leixoes
16 Aug
Portimonense
2 : 0 Vizela
31 Jul
Portimonense
1 : 2 Nottingham
28 Jul
Portimonense
2 : 0 Al Ahli SC
Page 1 of 4
Chaves
(Away) 04 Oct
SC Farense
4 : 0 Chaves
25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3 Chaves
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0 Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1 Chaves
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
SC Farense
4 : 0 Chaves
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3 Chaves
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1 Chaves
15 Aug
Sporting CP B
1 : 0 Chaves
02 Aug
Academico Viseu
1 : 0 Chaves
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 50:29 | 66 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 58:33 | 59 |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 46:33 | 59 |
| 4 | Vizela | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 39:40 | 51 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 41:42 | 51 |
| 6 | Leiria | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52:46 | 50 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 46:55 | 50 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 37:40 | 46 |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43:44 | 44 |
| 11 | FC Felgueiras | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 34:38 | 44 |
| 12 | Lusitania FC | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 44:52 | 43 |
| 13 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 41:34 | 42 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37:39 | 41 |
| 15 | Portimonense | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 39:49 | 40 |
| 16 | SC Farense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 31:37 | 40 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 34:48 | 39 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34:49 | 34 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)
