Sport Picks

USA

MLS Providence Park

Sporting Kansas City

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Portland Timbers play Sporting Kansas City in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Portland Timbers averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. Sporting Kansas City averaged 0.97 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. In past meetings, Portland Timbers won 4, Sporting Kansas City won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 6:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.44 for Portland Timbers and 1.19 for Sporting Kansas City. This points to a Portland Timbers double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Portland Timbers

17%

Draws

33%

Sporting Kansas City

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Portland Timbers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Portland Timbers picked up more points recently compared to Sporting Kansas City.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.44 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 69%

Over 3.5 Goals 41%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%

Portland Timbers Clean Sheet 20%

Sporting Kansas City Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Portland Timbers	Sporting Kansas City
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	8	8
Draws	6	3
Losses	15	19
Goals Scored	1.45	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.93	2.17
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	3.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 MLS

Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City

Possession: 49% - 52% Cards: 0 - 4

6:0

May 11, 2025 MLS

Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City

Possession: 50% - 50% Cards: 4 - 1

1:0

Apr 13, 2025 MLS

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers

Possession: 42% - 54% Cards: 2 - 1

2:4

May 26, 2024 MLS

Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City

Possession: 53% - 53% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Apr 7, 2024 MLS

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers

Possession: 47% - 60% Cards: 4 - 2

3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portland Timbers Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelsy K.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Velde K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Sporting Kansas City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portland Timbers 49 / 100

Sporting Kansas City 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Portland Timbers Sporting Kansas City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portland Timbers or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19%

2.38

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.7%

1.59

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portland Timbers attacking → ← attacking Sporting Kansas City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portland Timbers scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Sporting Kansas City let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Portland Timbers went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sporting Kansas City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 27

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34:12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34:15	32
3	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26:19	26
4	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30:22	25
5	Los Angeles FC	15	7	3	5	24:17	24
6	Seattle Sounders	13	7	3	3	17:11	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19:23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18:22	22
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	5	5	5	22:22	20
10	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30:27	17
11	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25:24	16
12	St. Louis City	14	4	4	6	16:20	16
13	Portland Timbers	14	4	2	8	22:28	14
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19:31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	14	3	2	9	14:36	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	10	3	1	31:11	33
2	Inter Miami	15	9	4	2	39:28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27:16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22:18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25:32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24:23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36:37	20
8	New York City	15	5	4	6	25:21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21:25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21:23	16
11	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22:31	14
12	Orlando City	15	4	2	9	23:44	14
13	Toronto FC	14	3	5	6	22:29	14
14	Atlanta United	14	3	2	9	14:23	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18:30	7