Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D

Porto Velho

2 - 1

Independencia Futebol Clube

Our Tip

Match Events

18'

Ruan Costa

55'

Ruan Costa

60'

Lemos M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D game between Porto Velho and Independencia Futebol Clube finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Porto Velho.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Porto Velho

Draws

Independencia Futebol Clube

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Porto Velho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Porto Velho come out ahead of Independencia Futebol Clube on wins alone.
Porto Velho are the model's pick here, at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%

Porto Velho Clean Sheet 16%

Independencia Futebol Clube Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Porto Velho	Independencia Futebol Clube
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	16	9
Draws	6	7
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	3.13	2
Goals Conceded	1	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	3.13	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Serie D

Porto Velho vs Independencia Futebol Clube

Possession: 57% - 60% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

May 2, 2026 Serie D

Independencia Futebol Clube vs Porto Velho

Possession: 46% - 59% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Porto Velho Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan Costa

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.41

Avg xA / game 1.56

Independencia Futebol Clube Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemos M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Porto Velho 84 / 100

Independencia Futebol Clube 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Porto Velho Independencia Futebol Clube

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Porto Velho's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Independencia Futebol Clube has conceded goals in 81% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Porto Velho went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Porto Velho VS Independencia Futebol Clube

3.13 Goals Scored 2

1 Goals Conceded 1.13

88% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manauara	10	6	4	0	13:5	22
2	Nacional-AM (Manaus)	10	6	2	2	15:9	20
3	Sao Raimundo RR	10	3	4	3	10:7	13
4	Monte Roraima	10	2	4	4	11:14	10
5	Manaus FC	10	2	4	4	8:13	10
6	Gremio Atletico Sampaio	10	1	2	7	8:17	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guapore	10	6	4	0	19:9	22
2	Porto Velho	10	5	3	2	33:9	18
3	Araguaina	10	5	3	2	31:9	18
4	Independencia Futebol Clube	10	4	3	3	17:10	15
5	Galvez	10	3	1	6	14:31	10
6	SC Humaita	10	0	0	10	4:50	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gama	10	8	2	0	23:6	26
2	Luverdense	10	4	3	3	11:10	15
3	Brasiliense	10	3	5	2	11:10	14
4	Aparecidense	10	3	4	3	13:12	13
5	Primavera AC	10	3	3	4	10:13	12
6	Inhumas	10	0	1	9	3:20	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Capital	10	7	2	1	16:6	23
2	Goiatuba EC	10	5	4	1	13:7	19
3	Ceilandia	10	3	3	4	9:10	12
4	Mixto	10	2	6	2	10:9	12
5	Uniao Rondonopolis	10	2	3	5	11:18	9
6	Operario VG	10	1	2	7	7:16	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trem	10	6	2	2	19:13	20
2	Aguia De Maraba	10	5	3	2	20:11	18
3	Imperatriz	10	4	3	3	15:10	15
4	Tuna Luso	10	3	4	3	14:17	13
5	Tocantinopolis	10	3	3	4	18:18	12
6	Oratorio	10	1	1	8	12:29	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iguatu	10	5	5	0	14:7	20
2	Maracana	10	5	4	1	12:6	19
3	Parnahyba	10	4	2	4	11:13	14
4	Sampaio Correa	10	3	4	3	12:6	13
5	Moto Club	10	2	3	5	8:15	9
6	IAPE	10	0	4	6	10:20	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferroviario	10	6	3	1	15:7	21
2	Piaui	10	5	2	3	14:11	17
3	Fluminense-PI	10	3	5	2	12:9	14
4	AE Altos	10	3	2	5	9:15	11
5	Tirol	10	2	4	4	10:10	10
6	Atletico Cearense	10	1	4	5	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ABC	10	7	2	1	15:6	23
2	America RN	10	6	3	1	14:3	21
3	Maguary	10	3	4	3	8:5	13
4	Central SC	10	3	4	3	8:7	13
5	Sousa	10	3	1	6	4:11	10
6	Laguna RN	10	0	2	8	3:20	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Treze PB	10	5	2	3	18:14	17
2	Sergipe	10	4	3	3	15:13	15
3	Serra Branca	10	3	6	1	12:8	15
4	Lagarto	10	3	4	3	14:15	13
5	Retro	10	3	3	4	13:15	12
6	Decisao	10	2	2	6	10:17	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSA	10	6	3	1	25:8	21
2	Juazeirense	10	5	2	3	12:9	17
3	ASA	10	4	4	2	11:7	16
4	Jacuipense	10	3	4	3	12:14	13
5	Clube Sociedade Esportiva	10	2	3	5	10:17	9
6	Alagoinhas	10	1	2	7	5:20	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uberlandia	10	5	3	2	12:8	18
2	Betim FC	10	4	3	3	12:9	15
3	CRAC	10	3	4	3	7:7	13
4	Ivinhema	10	3	4	3	9:12	13
5	ABECAT Ouvidorense	10	3	3	4	8:9	12
6	Operario MS	10	2	3	5	9:12	9

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Democrata GV	10	5	2	3	13:9	17
2	Tombense	10	4	5	1	13:6	17
3	Vitoria ES	10	4	3	3	12:8	15
4	Rio Branco ES	10	3	4	3	14:12	13
5	Porto-BA	10	3	1	6	9:21	10
6	Real Noroeste	10	1	5	4	6:11	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa	10	6	3	1	16:6	21
2	Agua Santa	10	5	2	3	16:8	17
3	Portuguesa RJ	10	3	5	2	14:9	14
4	America RJ	10	3	3	4	11:21	12
5	Madureira	10	3	2	5	11:16	11
6	Pouso Alegre	10	2	1	7	6:14	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Piracicaba	10	4	5	1	14:9	17
2	Noroeste	10	4	3	3	12:7	15
3	Velo Clube	10	3	4	3	10:10	13
4	Sampaio Correa FE	10	3	3	4	8:10	12
5	Nova Iguacu	10	3	3	4	7:10	12
6	Marica	10	3	2	5	9:14	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santa Catarina	10	6	1	3	15:9	19
2	Cianorte	10	5	1	4	9:8	16
3	FC Cascavel	10	4	3	3	9:4	15
4	Sao Luiz	10	4	3	3	11:9	15
5	Joinville	10	4	3	3	10:8	15
6	Guarany de Bage	10	1	1	8	2:18	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Blumenau	10	6	1	3	14:8	19
2	Marcilio Dias	10	4	4	2	9:5	16
3	Sao Joseense	10	3	4	3	3:4	13
4	EC Sao Jose (PA)	10	3	4	3	6:8	13
5	Brasil de Pelotas	10	2	4	4	9:12	10
6	Azuriz	10	2	3	5	7:11	9