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Stadium Background

Portugal vs Croatia

World World

World Championship 2026 BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Dias R.
46'
Sub
Budimir A. In: Matanovic I.
Out: Budimir A.
53' Event
Perisic I.

AI Match Summary

Portugal in this World Championship 2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Portugal
6%
Draws
4%
Croatia
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Portugal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Portugal lately — more wins on the board than Croatia.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Portugal taking it.
  • Portugal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Portugal, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Portugal Clean Sheet 19%
Croatia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugal Croatia
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 19 17
Draws 6 5
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 2.63 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 2, 2026 World Championship
Portugal vs Croatia
2:1
Nov 18, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Croatia vs Portugal
1:1
Sep 5, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Portugal vs Croatia
2:1
Jun 8, 2024 Friendly International
Portugal vs Croatia
1:2
Nov 17, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Croatia vs Portugal
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugal Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramos G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Croatia Compare

Top Goalscorer Perisic I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugal 85 / 100
Croatia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugal Croatia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Portugal found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Croatia let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Portugal went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Portugal VS Croatia
2.63 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Portugal

(Home)
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1
Croatia
27 Jun
Colombia
0 : 0
Portugal
23 Jun
Portugal
5 : 0
Uzbekistan
17 Jun
Portugal
1 : 1
D.R. Congo
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Croatia

(Away)
02 Jul
Portugal
2 : 1
Croatia
27 Jun
Croatia
2 : 1
Ghana
23 Jun
Panama
0 : 1
Croatia
17 Jun
England
4 : 2
Croatia
07 Jun
Croatia
2 : 1
Slovenia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Germany1
Paraguay2
France3
Sweden0
South Africa0
Canada1
Netherlands1
Morocco2
Portugal2
Croatia1
Spain3
Austria0
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Belgium3
Senegal2
Brazil2
Japan1
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
D.R. Congo1
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
Australia1
Egypt2
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Colombia1
Ghana0
1/8-finals
Paraguay0
France1
Canada0
Morocco3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland1
Colombia0
Quarter-finals
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway1
England2
Argentina3
Switzerland1
Semi-finals
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Final
Spain1
Argentina0
France4
England6