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Portugal vs Slovenia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Euro 2024 Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt
Mon, Jul 1, 2024
1 - 0
07:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Drkusic V.
37'
Karnicnik Z.
65'
Sub
Vitinha In: Diogo Jota
Out: Vitinha

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Portugal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Portugal
15%
Draws
31%
Slovenia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Portugal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Portugal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Portugal taking it.
  • Portugal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Portugal, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Portugal Clean Sheet 20%
Slovenia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugal Slovenia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 21 9
Draws 6 13
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 2.16 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2024 Euro
Portugal vs Slovenia
1:0
Mar 26, 2024 Friendly International
Slovenia vs Portugal
2:0
May 31, 2020 Friendly International
Slovenia vs Portugal
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugal 58 / 100
Slovenia 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugal Slovenia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portugal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Portugal scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Slovenia conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Portugal remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Portugal VS Slovenia
1.75 Goals Scored 1.43
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.14
75% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Portugal

(Home)
04 Oct
Portugal
2 : 1
Norway
01 Oct
Denmark
2 : 4
Portugal
27 Sept
Norway
1 : 2
Portugal
24 Sept
Portugal
1 : 0
Wales
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
Page 1 of 7

Slovenia

(Away)
06 Oct
Scotland
1 : 2
Slovenia
03 Oct
Switzerland
2 : 1
Slovenia
29 Sept
Slovenia
2 : 0
North Macedonia
26 Sept
Slovenia
0 : 0
Scotland
07 Jun
Croatia
2 : 1
Slovenia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Spain 4
Georgia 1
Germany 2
Denmark 0
Portugal 1
Slovenia 0
France 1
Belgium 0
Romania 0
Netherlands 3
Austria 1
Turkey 2
England 2
Slovakia 1
Switzerland 2
Italy 0
Quarter-finals
Spain 2
Germany 1
Portugal 0
France 1
Netherlands 2
Turkey 1
England 2
Switzerland 1
Semi-finals
Spain 2
France 1
Netherlands 1
England 2
Final
Spain 2
England 1