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Portugal W vs Spain W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Women Estádio da Mata Real, Pacos de Ferreira
Portugal W Logo

Portugal W

2 - 4
FT
Spain W Logo

Spain W

Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Guijarro P.
Assist: Bonmati A.
27' Event
Amado C.
Assist: Silva Di.
40' Event
Aleixandri L.
Assist: Pina C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League Women game between Portugal W and Spain W finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spain W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Portugal W
15%
Draws
42%
Spain W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Portugal W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Spain W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Spain W taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Spain W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Portugal W Clean Sheet 10%
Spain W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portugal W Spain W
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 22
Draws 5 3
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.71 2.9
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2025 Euro Women
Spain W vs Portugal W
5:0
Apr 8, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Spain W vs Portugal W
7:1
Apr 4, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Portugal W vs Spain W
2:4
Jul 19, 2017 Euro Women
Spain W vs Portugal W
2:0
Apr 8, 2016 Euro Women
Portugal W vs Spain W
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portugal W Compare

Top Goalscorer Amado C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Spain W Compare

Top Goalscorer Guijarro P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aleixandri L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portugal W 22 / 100
Spain W 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portugal W Spain W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Portugal W scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Portugal W remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Spain W let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Portugal W VS Spain W
2.25 Goals Scored 3
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Portugal W

(Home)
09 Jun
Finland W
3 : 1
Portugal W
05 Jun
Portugal W
5 : 0
Latvia W
18 Apr
Slovakia W
1 : 2
Portugal W
14 Apr
Latvia W
0 : 3
Portugal W
07 Mar
Portugal W
4 : 0
Slovakia W
Page 1 of 6

Spain W

(Away)
09 Jun
Iceland W
1 : 6
Spain W
05 Jun
Spain W
4 : 0
England W
18 Apr
Spain W
5 : 0
Ukraine W
14 Apr
England W
1 : 0
Spain W
07 Mar
Ukraine W
1 : 3
Spain W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany W 6 5 1 0 26:4 16
2 Netherlands W 6 3 2 1 11:10 11
3 Austria W 6 2 0 4 5:16 6
4 Scotland W 6 0 1 5 3:15 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France W 6 6 0 0 14:2 18
2 Norway W 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
3 Iceland W 6 0 4 2 6:9 4
4 Switzerland W 6 0 2 4 4:12 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain W 6 5 0 1 21:8 15
2 England W 6 3 1 2 16:6 10
3 Belgium W 6 2 0 4 9:16 6
4 Portugal W 6 1 1 4 5:21 4
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden W 6 3 3 0 13:6 12
2 Italy W 6 3 1 2 11:7 10
3 Denmark W 6 3 0 3 8:13 9
4 Wales W 6 0 2 4 4:10 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)