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Portuguesa Santista vs Marilia

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 Estadio Ulrico Mursa
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Yohan
90' Event
Caxito

AI Match Summary

Portuguesa Santista in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portuguesa Santista.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Portuguesa Santista
33%
Draws
27%
Marilia
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Portuguesa Santista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Portuguesa Santista have won more games recently than Marilia.
  • Model gives Portuguesa Santista a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Portuguesa Santista Clean Sheet 68%
Marilia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portuguesa Santista Marilia
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 17 16
Draws 8 10
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.5 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Paulista A3
Portuguesa Santista vs Marilia
2:0
Apr 22, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Portuguesa Santista
2:2
Feb 14, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Portuguesa Santista
3:0
Jan 27, 2018 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Portuguesa Santista
0:3
Jan 28, 2017 Paulista A3
Portuguesa Santista vs Marilia
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portuguesa Santista Compare

Top Goalscorer Yohan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Caxito
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Marilia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portuguesa Santista 50 / 100
Marilia 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portuguesa Santista Marilia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Portuguesa Santista scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Portuguesa Santista stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Marilia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Portuguesa Santista VS Marilia
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Marilia3
EC Sao Bernardo2
XV de Jau3
Rio Claro0
Portuguesa Santista3
Paulista2
Rio Preto EC3
Uniao Barbarense0
Semi-finals
Marilia3
XV de Jau2
Portuguesa Santista2
Rio Preto EC1
Final
Marilia2
Portuguesa Santista4