Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Portuguesa Santista vs Marilia

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3 Estadio Ulrico Mursa, Santos
Portuguesa Santista Logo

Portuguesa Santista

2 - 0
FT
Marilia Logo

Marilia

Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Yohan
90' Event
Caxito
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Portuguesa Santista
30%
Draws
6%
Marilia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Portuguesa Santista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Portuguesa Santista have won more games recently than Marilia.
  • Model gives Portuguesa Santista a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Portuguesa Santista have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Portuguesa Santista, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Portuguesa Santista Clean Sheet 68%
Marilia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portuguesa Santista Marilia
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 17 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.42 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.81 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Paulista A3
Portuguesa Santista vs Marilia
2:0
Apr 22, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Portuguesa Santista
2:2
Feb 14, 2026 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Portuguesa Santista
3:0
Jan 27, 2018 Paulista A3
Marilia vs Portuguesa Santista
0:3
Jan 28, 2017 Paulista A3
Portuguesa Santista vs Marilia
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portuguesa Santista Compare

Top Goalscorer Yohan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Caxito
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Marilia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portuguesa Santista 95 / 100
Marilia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portuguesa Santista Marilia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portuguesa Santista Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portuguesa Santista found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Portuguesa Santista has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Marilia's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Portuguesa Santista VS Marilia
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Portuguesa Santista

(Home)
26 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
2 : 0
Marilia
22 Apr
Marilia
2 : 2
Portuguesa Santista
18 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
1 : 1
Rio Preto EC
11 Apr
Rio Preto EC
0 : 1
Portuguesa Santista
05 Apr
Portuguesa Santista
2 : 0
Paulista
Page 1 of 7

Marilia

(Away)
22 Aug
Gremio Prudente
1 : 0
Marilia
15 Aug
Marilia
0 : 1
Linense
11 Aug
Marilia
1 : 1
Bandeirante
01 Aug
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Marilia
26 Jul
Linense
3 : 1
Marilia
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Marilia 3
EC Sao Bernardo 2
XV de Jau 3
Rio Claro 0
Portuguesa Santista 3
Paulista 2
Rio Preto EC 3
Uniao Barbarense 0
Semi-finals
Marilia 3
XV de Jau 2
Portuguesa Santista 2
Rio Preto EC 1
Final
Marilia 2
Portuguesa Santista 4