Sport Picks

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Portuguesa vs Corinthians

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Estadio do Caninde, Sao Paulo
Portuguesa Logo

Portuguesa

Sun, Feb 22, 2026
1 - 2
11:30 PM
Corinthians Logo

Corinthians

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Rene
Penalty Missed
37' Event
Ze Vitor
42'
Caio Roque
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Portuguesa
20%
Draws
7%
Corinthians
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Portuguesa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Corinthians haven't matched Portuguesa's recent run of results.
  • Portuguesa are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Portuguesa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Corinthians, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Portuguesa Clean Sheet 68%
Corinthians Clean Sheet 22%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portuguesa Corinthians
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 16 14
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.47 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Paulista
Portuguesa vs Corinthians
1:2
Feb 15, 2025 Paulista
Portuguesa vs Corinthians
2:2
Feb 11, 2024 Paulista
Corinthians vs Portuguesa
2:0
Feb 12, 2023 Paulista
Portuguesa vs Corinthians
0:0
Mar 24, 2015 Paulista
Corinthians vs Portuguesa
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Portuguesa Compare

Top Goalscorer Ze Vitor
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Corinthians Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portuguesa 86 / 100
Corinthians 13 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portuguesa Corinthians

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portuguesa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Portuguesa scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Corinthians has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Portuguesa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Portuguesa VS Corinthians
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Portuguesa

(Home)
25 Jul
Portuguesa
1 : 0
Uberlandia
18 Jul
Uberlandia
2 : 0
Portuguesa
11 Jul
Portuguesa
2 : 0
Marcilio Dias
04 Jul
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1
Portuguesa
27 Jun
Portuguesa
1 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
Page 1 of 6

Corinthians

(Away)
17 Sept
Corinthians
0 : 1
Estudiantes L.P.
13 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 1
Corinthians
10 Sept
Estudiantes L.P.
1 : 1
Corinthians
06 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
30 Aug
Corinthians
0 : 1
Santos
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Novorizontino 2
Santos 1
Portuguesa 1
Corinthians 2
Palmeiras 4
Capivariano 0
Bragantino 1
Sao Paulo 2
Semi-finals
Novorizontino 1
Corinthians 0
Palmeiras 2
Sao Paulo 1
Final
Novorizontino 1
Palmeiras 3