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Portuguesa vs Marcilio Dias

Brazil Brazil

Serie D Estadio do Caninde
Portuguesa Logo

Portuguesa

Sat, Jul 11, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Marcilio Dias Logo

Marcilio Dias

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Portuguesa play Marcilio Dias in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Portuguesa averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Marcilio Dias averaged 1.24 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Portuguesa won 0, Marcilio Dias won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 4, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Portuguesa and 0.88 for Marcilio Dias. This points to a Portuguesa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Portuguesa
26%
Draws
35%
Marcilio Dias
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Portuguesa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Portuguesa picked up more points recently compared to Marcilio Dias.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Portuguesa Clean Sheet 25%
Marcilio Dias Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Portuguesa Marcilio Dias
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.57 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Serie D
Marcilio Dias vs Portuguesa
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Portuguesa 40 / 100
Marcilio Dias 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Portuguesa Marcilio Dias

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Portuguesa or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Portuguesa attacking → ← attacking Marcilio Dias

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Portuguesa scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Marcilio Dias let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Portuguesa went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Marcilio Dias lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 47
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75