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Potiguar de Mossoró vs Santa Cruz de Natal

Brazil Brazil

Potiguar 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Felipe Araujo

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz de Natal in this Potiguar 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Cruz de Natal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Potiguar de Mossoró
6%
Draws
4%
Santa Cruz de Natal
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Potiguar de Mossoró

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Santa Cruz de Natal haven't matched Potiguar de Mossoró's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Potiguar de Mossoró taking it.
  • Regular Potiguar 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Potiguar de Mossoró Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Cruz de Natal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Potiguar de Mossoró Santa Cruz de Natal
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 0.88 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.5 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Potiguar
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Potiguar de Mossoró
0:1
Feb 23, 2025 Potiguar
Potiguar de Mossoró vs Santa Cruz de Natal
0:1
Feb 15, 2025 Potiguar
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Potiguar de Mossoró
2:0
Jan 11, 2025 Potiguar
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Potiguar de Mossoró
0:2
Jun 26, 2024 Serie D
Santa Cruz de Natal vs Potiguar de Mossoró
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Potiguar de Mossoró Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Santa Cruz de Natal Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Araujo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Potiguar de Mossoró 95 / 100
Santa Cruz de Natal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Potiguar de Mossoró Santa Cruz de Natal

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick POT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Santa Cruz de Natal conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Potiguar de Mossoró stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Potiguar de Mossoró's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Potiguar de Mossoró VS Santa Cruz de Natal
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
ABC-
TBD-
Laguna RN2
Globo FC1
America RN-
TBD-
Potiguar de Mossoró0
Santa Cruz de Natal3
Semi-finals
ABC1
Laguna RN0
America RN3
Santa Cruz de Natal2
Final
ABC1
America RN2