Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Prato vs Siena

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Sun, May 10, 2026
3 - 1
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Lipari M.
89' Event
D'Orsi F.
99' Event
Berizzi R.

AI Match Summary

Prato in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Prato
20%
Draws
28%
Siena
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Prato have won more games recently than Siena.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Prato taking it.
  • Prato have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Siena, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Prato Clean Sheet 18%
Siena Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Prato Siena
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 20 16
Draws 6 7
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.44 2.1
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Siena
3:1
Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Siena
3:3
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Prato
0:0
May 5, 2018 Serie C - Group A
Prato vs Siena
2:3
Dec 16, 2017 Serie C - Group A
Siena vs Prato
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Orsi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Berizzi R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Siena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lipari M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Prato 41 / 100
Siena 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Prato Siena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Prato found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Prato stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Siena has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Prato VS Siena
1.13 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Prato

(Home)
27 Sept
Prato
2 : 1
Ghiviborgo
20 Sept
Sasso Marconi
0 : 1
Prato
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
13 Sept
Rondinella
1 : 3
Prato
06 Sept
Prato
1 : 0
Ternana
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Siena

(Away)
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2
Siena
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Montevarchi
16 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Siena
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Mezzolara
06 Sept
Scandicci
1 : 1
Siena
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Prato 3
Siena 1
Tau 0
Seravezza Pozzi 2
Final
Prato 1
Seravezza Pozzi 2