Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Prato vs Siena

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Sun, May 10, 2026
3 - 1
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Lipari M.
89' Event
D'Orsi F.
99' Event
Berizzi R.

AI Match Summary

Prato in this Serie D - Group E tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Prato
30%
Draws
34%
Siena
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Prato have won more games recently than Siena.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Prato taking it.
  • Prato have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Siena, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Prato Clean Sheet 14%
Siena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Prato Siena
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 19 14
Draws 5 8
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.75 2.88
Goals Conceded 0.38 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Siena
3:1
Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Siena
3:3
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Prato
0:0
May 5, 2018 Serie C - Group A
Prato vs Siena
2:3
Dec 16, 2017 Serie C - Group A
Siena vs Prato
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Orsi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Berizzi R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Siena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lipari M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.62
Avg xA / game 1.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Prato 35 / 100
Siena 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Prato Siena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Prato found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Siena's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Prato has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Prato VS Siena
1.75 Goals Scored 2.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Prato

(Home)
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0
Grosseto
Page 1 of 7

Siena

(Away)
31 Jul
Siena
2 : 0
Scandicci
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Siena
4 : 4
Sporting Trestina
26 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
2 : 5
Siena
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0
Montevarchi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Prato 3
Siena 1
Tau 0
Seravezza Pozzi 2
Final
Prato 1
Seravezza Pozzi 2