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Preilu BJSS vs FK Smiltene

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1. Liga 2017
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Preilu BJSS play FK Smiltene in the 1. Liga 2017. It looks like a close match. Recently, Preilu BJSS averaged 1.43 goals scored and 3.4 conceded. FK Smiltene averaged 1.48 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. In past meetings, Preilu BJSS won 0, FK Smiltene won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 15, 2018 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.73 for Preilu BJSS and 1.43 for FK Smiltene. This points to a FK Smiltene double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Preilu BJSS
16%
Draws
52%
FK Smiltene
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: FK Smiltene

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Preilu BJSS picked up more points recently compared to FK Smiltene.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.73 vs 1.43 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Preilu BJSS Clean Sheet 17%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 84%
Second Half Goal 88%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Preilu BJSS FK Smiltene
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 6 6
Draws 1 8
Losses 23 19
Goals Scored 1.43 1.48
Goals Conceded 3.4 2.18

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2018 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Preilu BJSS
3:2
May 27, 2018 Nakotnes liga
Preilu BJSS vs FK Smiltene
0:4
Oct 21, 2017 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Preilu BJSS
1:1
Jul 22, 2017 Nakotnes liga
Preilu BJSS vs FK Smiltene
1:3
Sep 10, 2016 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Preilu BJSS
6:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Preilu BJSS 32 / 100
FK Smiltene 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Preilu BJSS FK Smiltene

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FK Smiltene or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.2%
1.37
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Preilu BJSS attacking → ← attacking FK Smiltene

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Preilu BJSS scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

FK Smiltene let in goals in 88% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Preilu BJSS went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

FK Smiltene lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

19 Points in last 5 26
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Valmiera22184075:2158
2AFA Olaine22153447:1448
3BFC Daugavpils22152558:1447
4Grobina22142662:4144
5Tukums 200022103936:3933
6Alberts JDFS22841023:3228
7Rezekne22841040:4728
8FK Smiltene22751028:4826
9RTU22801442:5224
10FK Auda Riga22651136:4523
11Preilu BJSS22421626:6714
12Bebri22121914:675
13Jekabpils SC00000:00
14Ogre00000:00