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Prespa vs Vardar Negotino

North Macedonia North Macedonia

2. MFL 2025/2026
Prespa Logo

Prespa

1 - 2
FT
Vardar Negotino Logo

Vardar Negotino

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The 2. MFL 2025/2026 game between Prespa and Vardar Negotino finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vardar Negotino.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Prespa
15%
Draws
42%
Vardar Negotino
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Prespa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Vardar Negotino's 1.17 goals per match outpaces what Prespa have produced (1).
  • Model gives Prespa a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Regular 2. MFL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Prespa Clean Sheet 11%
Vardar Negotino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Prespa Vardar Negotino
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 5
Draws 0 4
Losses 25 20
Goals Scored 1 1.17
Goals Conceded 2.53 3.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 2. MFL
Vardar Negotino vs Prespa
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 2. MFL
Prespa vs Vardar Negotino
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Prespa 56 / 100
Vardar Negotino 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Prespa Vardar Negotino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Prespa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vardar Negotino has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Vardar Negotino has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Prespa scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Prespa VS Vardar Negotino
0.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.75 Goals Conceded 3.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Prespa

(Home)
23 May
Prespa
1 : 3
Belasica Strumica
16 May
Sloga Vinica
3 : 2
Prespa
10 May
Prespa
0 : 3
Detonit Plackovica
03 May
Golemo Konjari
0 : 1
Prespa
25 Apr
Prespa
0 : 2
FK Skopje
Page 1 of 6

Vardar Negotino

(Away)
23 May
Vardar Negotino
0 : 5
Kozuf Gevgelija
16 May
Pobeda
3 : 5
Vardar Negotino
10 May
Vardar Negotino
0 : 4
Osogovo
02 May
Shkendija Haracine
8 : 2
Vardar Negotino
25 Apr
Vardar Negotino
1 : 4
Belasica Strumica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bregalnica Stip 30 22 5 3 72:17 71
2 FK Skopje 30 23 2 5 72:20 71
3 Shkendija Haracine 30 21 6 3 67:19 69
4 Ohrid 30 21 5 4 78:17 68
5 Belasica Strumica 30 18 4 8 57:21 58
6 Osogovo 30 16 6 8 53:27 54
7 Novaci 30 15 6 9 47:31 51
8 Detonit Plackovica 30 14 7 9 52:28 49
9 Kozuf Gevgelija 30 12 9 9 50:26 45
10 Teteks 30 13 3 14 56:44 42
11 Kamenica Sasa 30 9 9 12 47:53 36
12 Vardar Negotino 30 6 4 20 37:95 22
13 Sloga Vinica 30 4 3 23 31:84 15
14 Prespa 30 5 0 25 30:76 15
15 Pobeda 30 3 2 25 19:117 11
16 Golemo Konjari 30 2 1 27 17:110 7
Promotion - 1. MFL (Main)
Promotion - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)