Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Primavera AC vs Várzea Grande EC

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense Estádio Municipal Antônio Santo Renosto, Primavera do Leste
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Fabiano
88' Event
Lacerda R.
90' Event
Giovanni
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Matogrossense game between Primavera AC and Várzea Grande EC finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Primavera AC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Primavera AC
15%
Draws
48%
Várzea Grande EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Várzea Grande EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Primavera AC haven't matched Várzea Grande EC's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Primavera AC taking it.
  • Regular Matogrossense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Primavera AC Clean Sheet 10%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Primavera AC Várzea Grande EC
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 7 8
Draws 13 6
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Matogrossense
Primavera AC vs Várzea Grande EC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Primavera AC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fabiano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Várzea Grande EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lacerda R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Primavera AC 34 / 100
Várzea Grande EC 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Primavera AC Várzea Grande EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Várzea Grande EC let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Primavera AC scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Primavera AC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Primavera AC VS Várzea Grande EC
1 Goals Scored 1.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Primavera AC

(Home)
07 Jun
Primavera AC
1 : 2
Brasiliense
30 May
Aparecidense
1 : 1
Primavera AC
23 May
Gama
4 : 0
Primavera AC
17 May
Primavera AC
1 : 0
Luverdense
09 May
Inhumas
0 : 2
Primavera AC
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Várzea Grande EC

(Away)
23 Sept
Uirapuru
1 : 4
Várzea Grande EC
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
08 Feb
Cuiaba
0 : 1
Várzea Grande EC
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luverdense 9 5 2 2 7:3 17
2 Mixto 9 4 3 2 13:4 15
3 Operario VG 9 4 2 3 9:9 14
4 Sport Sinop 9 3 4 2 6:4 13
5 Cuiaba 9 3 3 3 8:8 12
6 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 3 3 13:15 12
7 Chapada 9 3 2 4 12:13 11
8 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 2 4 3 7:7 10
9 Primavera AC 9 1 7 1 6:9 10
10 Várzea Grande EC 9 1 2 6 5:14 5
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)