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Progreso vs Bella Vista

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2023 Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Silva A.
75' Event
Rosso A.

AI Match Summary

Progreso in this Segunda Division 2023 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Progreso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Progreso
15%
Draws
49%
Bella Vista
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bella Vista

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Progreso have won more games recently than Bella Vista.
  • Model gives Progreso a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Progreso Clean Sheet 68%
Bella Vista Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progreso Bella Vista
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 5 4
Losses 17 19
Goals Scored 0.97 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2023 Segunda Division
Progreso vs Bella Vista
2:0
May 28, 2023 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Progreso
0:1
Mar 24, 2013 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Bella Vista
2:2
Sep 29, 2012 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Bella Vista vs Progreso
3:1
Apr 3, 2010 Segunda Division
Progreso vs Bella Vista
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rosso A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Bella Vista Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progreso 59 / 100
Bella Vista 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progreso Bella Vista

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progreso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bella Vista conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Progreso scored in 64% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Bella Vista lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Progreso VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Progreso

(Home)
16 Aug
Progreso
0 : 2
Maldonado
08 Aug
Central Esp.
1 : 0
Progreso
02 Aug
Club Nacional
2 : 1
Progreso
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
11 Jul
Wanderers
2 : 0
Progreso
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Bella Vista

(Away)
09 Sept
Bella Vista
1 : 2
Central Esp.
27 Aug
Bella Vista
1 : 0
Juventud
03 Dec
Juventud
3 : 0
Bella Vista
29 Nov
Bella Vista
1 : 1
Atenas
26 Nov
Rampla Juniors
2 : 0
Bella Vista
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