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Stadium Background

Progresso vs River Esporte Clube

Brazil Brazil

Roraimense
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Progresso play River Esporte Clube in the Roraimense. River Esporte Clube are favorites here. Recently, Progresso averaged 0.63 goals scored and 3.9 conceded. River Esporte Clube averaged 2.08 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Progresso won 0, River Esporte Clube won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 6, 2026 ended 0:7. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.56 for Progresso and 3.06 for River Esporte Clube. This points to a River Esporte Clube double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Progresso
15%
Draws
72%
River Esporte Clube
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: River Esporte Clube

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Progresso picked up more points recently compared to River Esporte Clube.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.56 vs 3.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Progresso Clean Sheet 10%
River Esporte Clube Clean Sheet 22%
First Half Goal 84%
Second Half Goal 88%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progresso River Esporte Clube
Matches Played 30 24
Wins 2 10
Draws 3 5
Losses 25 9
Goals Scored 0.63 2.08
Goals Conceded 3.9 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.13 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Roraimense
Progresso vs River Esporte Clube
0:7
Mar 27, 2024 Roraimense
River Esporte Clube vs Progresso
4:0
Mar 31, 2023 Roraimense
Progresso vs River Esporte Clube
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progresso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.1
Avg xA / game 0.07

River Esporte Clube Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Souza
3 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Cipoal
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progresso 14 / 100
River Esporte Clube 69 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progresso River Esporte Clube

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick River Esporte Clube Win (2)
Secondary Pick River Esporte Clube & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +160%
20.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.2%
1.37
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Progresso attacking → ← attacking River Esporte Clube

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progresso scored in 30% of their last 30 games.

River Esporte Clube let in goals in 79% of their last 24 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Progresso went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

River Esporte Clube lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 35
0.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
3.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sao Raimundo RR862028:520
2Monte Roraima853018:818
3Gremio Atletico Sampaio852121:817
4Bare850317:715
5River Esporte Clube843122:815
6Progresso82068:256
7Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)82067:176
8Nautico FC81163:174
9Atl. Roraima80175:341