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PSG vs Brest

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Parc des Princes, Paris
1 - 0
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

53'
Sub
Lee Kang-In In: Doue D.
Out: Lee Kang-In
61'
Sub
Ramos G. In: Dembele O.
Out: Ramos G.
61'
Sub
Ruiz F. In: Kvaratskhelia K.
Out: Ruiz F.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between PSG and Brest finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward PSG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
PSG
11%
Draws
9%
Brest
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: PSG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and PSG come out ahead of Brest on wins alone.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on PSG taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors PSG here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
PSG Clean Sheet 68%
Brest Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSG Brest
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 21 8
Draws 4 7
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 2.25 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Ligue 1
PSG vs Brest
1:0
Oct 25, 2025 Ligue 1
Brest vs PSG
0:3
Feb 19, 2025 Champions League
PSG vs Brest
7:0
Feb 11, 2025 Champions League
Brest vs PSG
0:3
Feb 1, 2025 Ligue 1
Brest vs PSG
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSG Compare

Top Goalscorer Doue D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Brest Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSG 86 / 100
Brest 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSG Brest

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSG scored in 97% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Brest let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

PSG went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

PSG VS Brest
2.25 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSG

(Home)
30 May
PSG
2 : 1
Arsenal
17 May
Paris FC
2 : 1
PSG
13 May
Lens
0 : 2
PSG
10 May
PSG
1 : 0
Brest
06 May
Bayern Munich
1 : 1
PSG
Page 1 of 7

Brest

(Away)
22 Jul
Brest
0 : 2
Al Wakra
18 Jul
Brest
2 : 2
Concarneau
17 May
Brest
1 : 1
Angers
13 May
Brest
1 : 2
Strasbourg
10 May
PSG
1 : 0
Brest
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)