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PSG vs Toulouse

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Parc des Princes, Paris
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Dembele O.
27' Event
Nicolaisen R.
Assist: Sidibe D.
33' Event
Dembele O.
Assist: Kvaratskhelia K.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between PSG and Toulouse finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward PSG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
PSG
20%
Draws
44%
Toulouse
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toulouse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • PSG carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and PSG have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
PSG Clean Sheet 20%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSG Toulouse
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 2.17 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2026 Ligue 1
PSG vs Toulouse
3:1
Aug 30, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs PSG
3:6
Feb 15, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs PSG
0:1
Nov 22, 2024 Ligue 1
PSG vs Toulouse
3:0
May 12, 2024 Ligue 1
PSG vs Toulouse
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSG Compare

Top Goalscorer Dembele O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ramos G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Nicolaisen R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSG 31 / 100
Toulouse 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSG Toulouse

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: PSG scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Toulouse's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: PSG stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

PSG VS Toulouse
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

PSG

(Home)
23 Aug
Rennes
2 : 2
PSG
16 Aug
Lens
1 : 0
PSG
12 Aug
PSG
2 : 1
Aston Villa
08 Aug
PSG
1 : 1
Manchester United
05 Aug
Mallorca
3 : 0
PSG
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Toulouse

(Away)
22 Aug
Toulouse
0 : 2
Lyon
15 Aug
Toulouse
1 : 2
Hamburger
08 Aug
Elche
3 : 0
Toulouse
05 Aug
Al Ain
0 : 1
Toulouse
31 Jul
Toulouse
2 : 1
Real Sociedad
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 34 24 4 6 74:29 76
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 66:35 70
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 52:37 61
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 53:40 60
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 63:45 59
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 59:50 59
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 60:54 54
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 58:47 53
9 Toulouse 34 12 9 13 47:46 45
10 Lorient 34 11 12 11 48:51 45
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 47:50 44
12 Brest 34 10 9 15 43:55 39
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 29:48 36
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 32:44 35
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 34:44 34
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 37:60 32
17 Nantes 34 5 9 20 29:52 24
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 32:76 17
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)