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PSG W vs Thonon Evian W

France France

Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 Paris Saint-Germain Training Center, Poissy
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Isabela
Assist: Graziani O.
64' Event
Lafontaine M.
Assist: Graziani O.
84' Event
Lafontaine M.
Assist: Fatier N.

AI Match Summary

PSG W in this Coupe de la Ligue Women 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
PSG W
20%
Draws
28%
Thonon Evian W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: PSG W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • PSG W have won more games recently than Thonon Evian W.
  • PSG W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • PSG W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor PSG W, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
PSG W Clean Sheet 68%
Thonon Evian W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSG W Thonon Evian W
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 19 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 2.07 1.69
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Coupe de la Ligue Women
PSG W vs Thonon Evian W
3:0
Mar 18, 2023 Coupe de France Women
PSG W vs Thonon Evian W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSG W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lafontaine M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Isabela
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Thonon Evian W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSG W 95 / 100
Thonon Evian W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSG W Thonon Evian W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSG W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSG W scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

PSG W has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Thonon Evian W let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

PSG W VS Thonon Evian W
2.13 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

PSG W

(Home)
22 Sept
Real Madrid W
1 : 1
PSG W
18 Sept
PSG W
1 : 0
Nantes W
11 Sept
PSG W
2 : 0
Strasbourg W
05 Sept
Lens W
0 : 2
PSG W
02 Sept
PSG W
5 : 1
Eintracht Frankfurt W
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Thonon Evian W

(Away)
26 Sept
Marseille W
6 : 1
Thonon Evian W
19 Sept
Thonon Evian W
1 : 2
Metz W
06 Sept
Thonon Evian W
1 : 1
St Etienne W
29 Aug
Thonon Evian W
1 : 0
Toulouse W
22 Aug
Cannes W
4 : 5
Thonon Evian W
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Dijon W 2
Nantes W 1
OL Lyonnes W 4
Marseille W 0
PSG W 3
Thonon Evian W 0
Paris FC W 1
Lens W 0
Semi-finals
Dijon W 0
OL Lyonnes W 4
PSG W 3
Paris FC W 0
Final
OL Lyonnes W 1
PSG W 0