Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Puebla de la Calzada vs Moralo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Silva Reis R. W.
27' Event
El Yahyaoui H.

AI Match Summary

Moralo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moralo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Puebla de la Calzada
20%
Draws
47%
Moralo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Moralo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Moralo have won more games recently than Puebla de la Calzada.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Puebla de la Calzada taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Moralo have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 19%
Moralo Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla de la Calzada Moralo
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 8 18
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 4
Goals Scored 1.14 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.48 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Moralo
0:2
Nov 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Puebla de la Calzada
1:1
May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Moralo
2:3
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Moralo vs Puebla de la Calzada
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Moralo Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva Reis R. W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader El Yahyaoui H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla de la Calzada 36 / 100
Moralo 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla de la Calzada Moralo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Puebla de la Calzada remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Puebla de la Calzada found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Moralo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Puebla de la Calzada VS Moralo
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla de la Calzada

(Home)
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3
Puebla de la Calzada
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0
Castuera
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
19 Aug
Puebla de la Calzada
0 : 2
CD Badajoz
10 May
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
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Moralo

(Away)
20 Sept
Moralo
2 : 0
CD Zafra
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
07 Jun
CD Badajoz
0 : 0
Moralo
31 May
Moralo
0 : 2
CD Badajoz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)