Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Moralo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Puebla de la Calzada play Moralo in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, Puebla de la Calzada averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Moralo averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. In past meetings, Puebla de la Calzada won 0, Moralo won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 2, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Puebla de la Calzada and 1.63 for Moralo. This points to a Moralo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

Puebla de la Calzada

30%

Draws

47%

Moralo

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Moralo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Puebla de la Calzada picked up more points recently compared to Moralo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 14%

Moralo Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Puebla de la Calzada	Moralo
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	7	16
Draws	10	9
Losses	13	5
Goals Scored	1.07	1.4
Goals Conceded	1.53	0.7
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Puebla de la Calzada vs Moralo

Possession: 45% - 44% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Nov 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Moralo vs Puebla de la Calzada

Possession: 57% - 51% Cards: 4 - 2

1:1

May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Puebla de la Calzada vs Moralo

Possession: 41% - 46% Cards: 2 - 1

2:3

Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Moralo vs Puebla de la Calzada

Possession: 54% - 42% Cards: 2 - 3

5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Moralo Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva Reis R. W.

1 Goals

Assists Leader El Yahyaoui H.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla de la Calzada 24 / 100

Moralo 46 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Puebla de la Calzada Moralo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Moralo or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +53.4%

6.67

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Puebla de la Calzada attacking → ← attacking Moralo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puebla de la Calzada scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Moralo let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Puebla de la Calzada went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Moralo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 57

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Don Benito	34	21	8	5	70:22	71
2	CD Badajoz	34	23	5	6	64:27	71
3	Moralo	34	17	11	6	54:32	62
4	CD Azuaga	34	18	8	8	53:31	62
5	Jaraiz	34	16	11	7	53:33	59
6	Cabeza del Buey	34	15	12	7	45:29	57
7	SP Villafranca	34	16	7	11	45:40	55
8	Villanovense	34	15	8	11	45:36	53
9	Montijo	34	13	7	14	43:42	46
10	Jerez CF	34	8	17	9	56:51	41
11	AD Llerenense	34	11	8	15	35:44	41
12	Puebla de la Calzada	34	9	11	14	35:48	38
13	Santa Amalia	34	9	7	18	30:52	34
14	Gevora	34	8	9	17	32:53	33
15	Pueblonuevo	34	9	6	19	29:55	33
16	CD Diocesano	34	6	12	16	33:63	30
17	Montehermoso	34	5	8	21	24:66	23
18	CD Calamonte	34	3	13	18	25:47	22