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Puebla U21 vs Toluca U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Roman A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX U21 game between Puebla U21 and Toluca U21 finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toluca U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Puebla U21
15%
Draws
71%
Toluca U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Toluca U21 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 71% — that's where the model lands on Toluca U21 taking it.
  • Regular Liga MX U21 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Toluca U21 here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Puebla U21 Clean Sheet 18%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla U21 Toluca U21
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 20
Draws 0 0
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Liga MX U21
Puebla U21 vs Toluca U21
0:1
Jan 30, 2026 Liga MX U21
Puebla U21 vs Toluca U21
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Puebla U21
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Roman A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla U21 20 / 100
Toluca U21 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla U21 Toluca U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puebla U21 scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Toluca U21 conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Puebla U21 went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Puebla U21 VS Toluca U21
1 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla U21

(Home)
26 Sept
Tigres UANL U21
2 : 1
Puebla U21
18 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Atlante U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
11 Sept
Necaxa U21
0 : 2
Puebla U21
29 Aug
Club America U21
2 : 1
Puebla U21
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Toluca U21

(Away)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Santos Laguna U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Juarez U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca U21 10 10 0 0 20:7 27
2 Club Leon U21 10 9 0 1 19:9 24
3 Club Tijuana U21 10 7 0 3 18:12 21
4 Guadalajara Chivas U21 10 6 0 4 16:14 18
5 Puebla U21 10 5 0 5 11:9 17
6 Club America U21 10 5 0 5 14:14 15
7 Santos Laguna U21 10 5 0 5 10:12 15
8 Monterrey U21 9 5 0 4 19:13 14
9 Necaxa U21 10 5 0 5 11:15 14
10 Atletico San Luis U21 10 5 0 5 17:19 13
11 Pachuca U21 10 3 0 7 10:15 13
12 Atlante U21 10 4 0 6 14:20 13
13 Cruz Azul U21 10 5 0 5 18:16 12
14 Atlas U21 10 3 0 7 13:13 12
15 UNAM Pumas U21 10 3 0 7 10:14 12
16 Juarez U21 10 4 0 6 9:12 11
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 3 0 7 10:19 10
18 Queretaro U21 9 2 0 7 10:16 6
Promotion - Liga MX U21 (Apertura - Play Offs)