Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Puebla vs Queretaro

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Garnica B.
16'
Garnica B.
16'
Diaz N.

AI Match Summary

Queretaro in this Liga MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Queretaro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Puebla
20%
Draws
40%
Queretaro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Queretaro lately — more wins on the board than Puebla.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Queretaro here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Puebla Clean Sheet 13%
Queretaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla Queretaro
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga MX
Puebla vs Queretaro
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Liga MX
Queretaro vs Puebla
3:1
Mar 2, 2025 Liga MX
Queretaro vs Puebla
2:0
Sep 14, 2024 Liga MX
Puebla vs Queretaro
2:1
Feb 24, 2024 Liga MX
Puebla vs Queretaro
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla Compare

Top Goalscorer Garnica B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Queretaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Avila A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Parra D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla 35 / 100
Queretaro 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla Queretaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Queretaro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puebla scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Queretaro let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Puebla stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Puebla VS Queretaro
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla

(Home)
19 Sept
Puebla
1 : 1
Atlante
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Necaxa
0 : 1
Puebla
30 Aug
Club America
2 : 0
Puebla
23 Aug
Puebla
3 : 2
Santos Laguna
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Queretaro

(Away)
12 Sept
Club Tijuana
0 : 1
Queretaro
29 Aug
Atlas
1 : 3
Queretaro
22 Aug
Queretaro
1 : 2
Toluca
16 Aug
UNAM Pumas
0 : 0
Queretaro
13 Aug
Los Angeles FC
2 : 1
Queretaro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UNAM Pumas 17 10 6 1 34:17 36
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 33:17 36
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 31:18 33
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 25:19 31
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 28:16 30
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 16:18 26
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 28:18 25
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 20:17 25
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 19:17 23
10 Club Leon 17 7 1 9 22:32 22
11 Queretaro 17 4 8 5 17:21 20
12 Juarez 17 5 4 8 26:32 19
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 22:24 18
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 24:27 18
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 19:25 18
16 Mazatlan FC 17 4 3 10 22:37 15
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 13:26 13
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 20:38 12
Promotion - Liga MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)