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Qala Saints vs Kercem Ajax

Malta Malta

Challenge Cup
Fri, Feb 27, 2026
1 - 2
06:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Mohammed I.
73' Event
Romulo Bosqueiro

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Qala Saints
15%
Draws
28%
Kercem Ajax
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Qala Saints

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Kercem Ajax carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Qala Saints's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Kercem Ajax arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Kercem Ajax, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 88%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 88%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Qala Saints Clean Sheet 10%
Kercem Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qala Saints Kercem Ajax
Matches Played 17 30
Wins 5 15
Draws 0 0
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.53 2.63
Goals Conceded 2.76 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Challenge Cup
Qala Saints vs Kercem Ajax
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qala Saints Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohammed I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.26
Avg xA / game 1.47

Kercem Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Romulo Bosqueiro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qala Saints 74 / 100
Kercem Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qala Saints Kercem Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qala Saints Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kercem Ajax's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Kercem Ajax lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Qala Saints scored in 59% of their last 17 games.

Scoring Trends

Qala Saints VS Kercem Ajax
2.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 3.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Qala Saints

(Home)
27 Feb
Qala Saints
1 : 2
Kercem Ajax
04 Jan
Qala Saints
0 : 2
Mgarr
06 Dec
Zebbug
0 : 5
Qala Saints
04 Feb
Qala Saints
0 : 3
Hibernians
12 Jan
Qala Saints
2 : 0
St. Andrews
Page 1 of 4

Kercem Ajax

(Away)
18 Mar
Birzebbuga
1 : 0
Kercem Ajax
27 Feb
Qala Saints
1 : 2
Kercem Ajax
04 Jan
Zurrieq
4 : 0
Kercem Ajax
13 Dec
Zejtun
3 : 2
Kercem Ajax
15 Feb
Hibernians
8 : 0
Kercem Ajax
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Swieqi 0
Pieta 1
Mgarr 2
Melita 3
Gudja 2
Vittoriosa 1
Xewkija 1
Nadur 0
Marsa 0
Birzebbuga 3
Qala Saints 1
Kercem Ajax 2
Victoria Wanderers 2
Ghajnsielem 1
Xaghra -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
Pieta 0
Melita 1
Gudja 2
Xewkija 3
Birzebbuga 1
Kercem Ajax 0
Victoria Wanderers 4
Xaghra 2
Semi-finals
Melita 3
Xewkija 1
Birzebbuga 2
Victoria Wanderers 1
Final
Melita 0
Birzebbuga 3