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Qarabag Agdam 2 vs Mingachevir

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

First Division 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

87' Event
Faracov S.

AI Match Summary

The First Division 2022/2023 game between Qarabag Agdam 2 and Mingachevir finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Qarabag Agdam 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Qarabag Agdam 2
20%
Draws
40%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mingachevir come out ahead of Qarabag Agdam 2 on wins alone.
  • Qarabag Agdam 2 are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular First Division 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Qarabag Agdam 2 Clean Sheet 17%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam 2 Mingachevir
Matches Played 30 48
Wins 10 16
Draws 5 14
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.13 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2023 I Liqa
Qarabag Agdam 2 vs Mingachevir
1:0
Sep 7, 2022 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Qarabag Agdam 2
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Faracov S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Mingachevir Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 2 75 / 100
Mingachevir 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam 2 Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qarabag Agdam 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qarabag Agdam 2 scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Mingachevir has conceded goals in 75% of their last 48 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Mingachevir has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mingachevir
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam 2

(Home)
23 May
Gabala 2
0 : 0
Qarabag Agdam 2
19 May
Kapaz 2
2 : 1
Qarabag Agdam 2
16 May
Qarabag Agdam 2
1 : 3
Turan 2
13 May
Zira FK 2
0 : 2
Qarabag Agdam 2
03 May
Qarabag Agdam 2
0 : 1
SumQayit FK 2
Page 1 of 6

Mingachevir

(Away)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
Page 1 of 10

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Araz PFK 28 22 3 3 69:22 69
2 Neftci Baku 2 28 18 5 5 67:32 59
3 Turan 2 28 15 3 10 49:37 48
4 Sabail 2 28 13 5 10 46:44 44
5 Gabala 2 28 12 8 8 45:28 44
6 Zaqatala PFK 28 13 5 10 49:48 44
7 Kapaz 2 28 13 4 11 41:36 43
8 MOIK Baku 28 12 7 9 43:42 43
9 Lokbatan 28 12 5 11 30:23 41
10 Shamakhi 2 28 11 4 13 40:56 37
11 Qarabag Agdam 2 28 9 4 15 32:39 31
12 Zira FK 2 28 6 10 12 28:41 28
13 SumQayit FK 2 28 6 4 18 36:60 22
14 Mingachevir 28 5 5 18 29:51 20
15 Imisli FK 28 6 2 20 21:66 20
Promotion - Premier League 2023/2024 (Main)