Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Montiel J.
14'
Muradov R.
42'
Sub
Paro I. In: Franco B. A.
Out: Paro I.

AI Match Summary

Qarabag Agdam in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Qarabag Agdam.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Qarabag Agdam
30%
Draws
12%
Araz PFK
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Qarabag Agdam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Qarabag Agdam lately — more wins on the board than Araz PFK.
  • Qarabag Agdam are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Qarabag Agdam have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 20%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Araz PFK
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 9
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 2.1 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 0.58
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
3:2
Mar 8, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
6:0
Dec 14, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
5:1
Sep 21, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Qarabag Agdam
0:5
May 11, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Araz PFK
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Montiel J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cephas R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Dumancic L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Salyanskiy A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 76 / 100
Araz PFK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Araz PFK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qarabag Agdam Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Qarabag Agdam scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Araz PFK has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Qarabag Agdam stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Qarabag Agdam VS Araz PFK
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.83
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam

(Home)
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4
Twente
20 Aug
Twente
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
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Araz PFK

(Away)
13 Sept
Araz PFK
2 : 2
Turan
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Sabah Baku
23 Aug
Neftci Baku
5 : 0
Araz PFK
15 Aug
Araz PFK
0 : 0
Imisli FK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 4 4 0 0 11:0 12
2 Neftci Baku 5 4 0 1 15:5 12
3 Qarabag Agdam 4 3 1 0 8:4 10
4 Zira FK 5 3 1 1 7:7 10
5 Turan 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
6 Kapaz 4 2 0 2 3:6 6
7 Shamakhi 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
8 Gabala 5 1 1 3 2:4 4
9 Imisli FK 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
10 Safa Baku 5 1 0 4 2:10 3
11 Araz PFK 5 0 2 3 4:11 2
12 SumQayit FK 4 0 1 3 3:7 1
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)