Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup Azersun Arena, Baku
Qarabag Agdam Logo

Qarabag Agdam

3 - 0
FT
Karvan Logo

Karvan

Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Akhundzade N.
83' Event
Yunuszada E.
Own Goal
89' Event
Akhundzade N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Qarabag Agdam
20%
Draws
10%
Karvan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Qarabag Agdam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Qarabag Agdam carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Qarabag Agdam a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Qarabag Agdam have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Qarabag Agdam, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Qarabag Agdam have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 68%
Karvan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Karvan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 3
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 22
Goals Scored 2.17 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
7:0
Dec 3, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
3:0
Nov 29, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Qarabag Agdam
0:2
Feb 9, 2010 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Akhundzade N.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Karvan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 86 / 100
Karvan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Karvan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qarabag Agdam Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karvan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Qarabag Agdam scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Qarabag Agdam went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Qarabag Agdam VS Karvan
2.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam

(Home)
13 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 0
Dynamo Kyiv
06 Aug
Dynamo Kyiv
1 : 0
Qarabag Agdam
30 Jul
CSKA Sofia
1 : 0
Qarabag Agdam
23 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia
16 Jul
Vestri
0 : 3
Qarabag Agdam
Page 1 of 6

Karvan

(Away)
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1
Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
05 May
Karvan
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
27 Apr
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
Karvan
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail 0
Shamakhi 1
Goygol 0
Baku Sporting 2
Qarabag Agdam -
TBD -
Karvan 3
Sheki City 1
Lokbatan 2
Imisli FK 3
TBD -
Sabah Baku -
Gabala 5
Mingachevir 1
Cebrayil 0
Safa Baku 3
Shimal 0
Sahdag Qusar 2
Dinamo Baki 0
Turan 5
Araz PFK -
TBD -
Kapaz 6
Agstafa Gencleri 1
FC Khankendi 1
Difai Agsu 2
Zaqatala PFK 0
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK -
TBD -
Neftci Baku 6
MOIK Baku 2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi 1
Baku Sporting 0
Qarabag Agdam 3
Karvan 0
Imisli FK 1
Sabah Baku 2
Gabala 2
Safa Baku 1
Sahdag Qusar 1
Turan 2
Araz PFK 0
Kapaz 1
Difai Agsu 1
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK 1
Neftci Baku 0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi 3
Qarabag Agdam 4
Sabah Baku 4
Gabala 3
Turan 3
Kapaz 0
SumQayit FK 0
Zira FK 2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam 3
Sabah Baku 4
Turan 0
Zira FK 2
Final
Sabah Baku 2
Zira FK 1