Sport Picks
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan Cup Azersun Arena, Baku 
Match Events
80'
80'
Akhundzade N.
83'
83'
Yunuszada E.
Own Goal
89'
89'
Akhundzade N.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
20%
33%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Qarabag Agdam
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Qarabag Agdam carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Qarabag Agdam have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Qarabag Agdam, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Qarabag Agdam have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 20%
Karvan Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Qarabag Agdam | Karvan |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 35 | 29 |
| Wins | 19 | 4 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.06 | 1.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 6, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
7:0
Dec 3, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
3:0
Nov 29, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
2:0
Aug 31, 2025 Premier League
Karvan vs Qarabag Agdam
0:2
Feb 9, 2010 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Karvan
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Qarabag Agdam Compare
Top Goalscorer Akhundzade N.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Karvan Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Qarabag Agdam 36 / 100
Karvan 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Qarabag Agdam Karvan
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Karvan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Karvan's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Qarabag Agdam scored in 77% of their last 35 games.
Qarabag Agdam went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Qarabag Agdam VS Karvan
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Qarabag Agdam
(Home) 18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0 Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1 Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2 Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1 Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4 Twente
Page 1 of 7
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0 Safa Baku
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2 Araz PFK
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4 Twente
17 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 1 Shamakhi
13 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 0 Dynamo Kyiv
Page 1 of 4
Karvan
(Away) 16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0 Zaqatala PFK
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0 Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3 Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1 Karvan
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2 Gabala
Page 1 of 6
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0 Karvan
03 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 3 Karvan
24 May
Imisli FK
1 : 1 Karvan
10 May
Turan
1 : 0 Karvan
27 Apr
Sabah Baku
2 : 0 Karvan
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Sabail 0
Shamakhi 1
Goygol 0
Baku Sporting 2
Qarabag Agdam -
TBD -
Karvan 3
Sheki City 1
Lokbatan 2
Imisli FK 3
TBD -
Sabah Baku -
Gabala 5
Mingachevir 1
Gancabasar 0
Safa Baku 3
Shimal 0
Sahdag Qusar 2
Dinamo Baki 0
Turan 5
Araz PFK -
TBD -
Kapaz 6
Agstafa Gencleri 1
FC Khankendi 1
Difai Agsu 2
Zaqatala PFK 0
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK -
TBD -
Neftci Baku 6
MOIK Baku 2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi 1
Baku Sporting 0
Qarabag Agdam 3
Karvan 0
Imisli FK 1
Sabah Baku 2
Gabala 2
Safa Baku 1
Sahdag Qusar 1
Turan 2
Araz PFK 0
Kapaz 1
Difai Agsu 1
SumQayit FK 3
Zira FK 1
Neftci Baku 0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi 3
Qarabag Agdam 4
Sabah Baku 4
Gabala 3
Turan 3
Kapaz 0
SumQayit FK 0
Zira FK 2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam 3
Sabah Baku 4
Turan 0
Zira FK 2
Final
Sabah Baku 2
Zira FK 1
