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Qarabag Agdam vs Newcastle Utd

Europe Europe

Champions League 2025/2026 Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Qarabag Agdam Logo

Qarabag Agdam

1 - 6
FT
Newcastle Utd Logo

Newcastle Utd

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Gordon A.
Assist: Burn D.
8' Event
Thiaw M.
Assist: Trippier K.
22'
Sub
Mustafazada B. In: Lima D.
Out: Mustafazada B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Utd in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-6. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Qarabag Agdam
20%
Draws
40%
Newcastle Utd
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Newcastle Utd haven't matched Qarabag Agdam's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Qarabag Agdam have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Newcastle Utd, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 17%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Newcastle Utd
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 14 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.83 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 24, 2026 Champions League
Newcastle Utd vs Qarabag Agdam
3:2
Feb 18, 2026 Champions League
Qarabag Agdam vs Newcastle Utd
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Cafarquliyev E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Newcastle Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Gordon A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Thiaw M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 31 / 100
Newcastle Utd 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Newcastle Utd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Utd's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Qarabag Agdam scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Qarabag Agdam went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Qarabag Agdam VS Newcastle Utd
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam

(Home)
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4
Twente
Page 1 of 6

Newcastle Utd

(Away)
19 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 1
Hull City
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1
Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1
Newcastle Utd
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2
Bournemouth
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2
Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1