Sport Picks
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan Cup Azersun Arena, Baku 
Match Events
14'
14'
Dashdamirov R.
23'
23'
Rakhmonaliyev U.
29'
29'
Kady Borges
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Azerbaijan Cup tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
39%
31%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sabah Baku have won more games recently than Qarabag Agdam.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Sabah Baku arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Sabah Baku, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 68%
Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Qarabag Agdam | Sabah Baku |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 34 |
| Wins | 19 | 24 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 22, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
0:1
Apr 3, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
2:2
Mar 1, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
3:3
Dec 18, 2025 Premier League
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Qarabag Agdam Compare
Top Goalscorer Kady Borges
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Sabah Baku Compare
Top Goalscorer Rakhmonaliyev U.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Qarabag Agdam 41 / 100
Sabah Baku 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Qarabag Agdam Sabah Baku
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick QAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Qarabag Agdam scored in 82% of their last 34 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.
Sabah Baku has conceded goals in 62% of their last 34 outings.
Recent resilience: Qarabag Agdam stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Qarabag Agdam VS Sabah Baku
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Qarabag Agdam
(Home) 16 Jul
Vestri
0 : 3 Qarabag Agdam
09 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 0 Vestri
01 Jul
Ferencvaros
1 : 0 Qarabag Agdam
01 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 6 FC Kharkiv
27 Jun
Tirol
0 : 4 Qarabag Agdam
Page 1 of 7
09 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 0 Vestri
01 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 6 FC Kharkiv
16 May
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 0 Imisli FK
04 May
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 1 Turan
18 Apr
Qarabag Agdam
0 : 1 Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 4
Sabah Baku
(Away) 14 Jul
TNS
1 : 2 Sabah Baku
07 Jul
Sabah Baku
2 : 0 TNS
02 Jul
Polissya Zhytomyr
4 : 1 Sabah Baku
28 Jun
Ferencvaros
1 : 1 Sabah Baku
24 Jun
Univ. Craiova
1 : 1 Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 7
14 Jul
TNS
1 : 2 Sabah Baku
02 Jul
Polissya Zhytomyr
4 : 1 Sabah Baku
28 Jun
Ferencvaros
1 : 1 Sabah Baku
24 Jun
Univ. Craiova
1 : 1 Sabah Baku
22 May
Turan
1 : 2 Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Sabail0
Shamakhi1
Goygol0
Baku Sporting2
Qarabag Agdam-
TBD-
Karvan3
Sheki City1
Lokbatan2
Imisli FK3
TBD-
Sabah Baku-
Gabala5
Mingachevir1
Cebrayil0
Safa Baku3
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar2
Dinamo Baki0
Turan5
Araz PFK-
TBD-
Kapaz6
Agstafa Gencleri1
FC Khankendi1
Difai Agsu2
Zaqatala PFK0
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK-
TBD-
Neftci Baku6
MOIK Baku2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi1
Baku Sporting0
Qarabag Agdam3
Karvan0
Imisli FK1
Sabah Baku2
Gabala2
Safa Baku1
Sahdag Qusar1
Turan2
Araz PFK0
Kapaz1
Difai Agsu1
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK1
Neftci Baku0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi3
Qarabag Agdam4
Sabah Baku4
Gabala3
Turan3
Kapaz0
SumQayit FK0
Zira FK2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam3
Sabah Baku4
Turan0
Zira FK2
Final
Sabah Baku2
Zira FK1