Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Qatar vs Iran

World World

World Championship 2026 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Ali A.
27'
Alipour A.
31'
Aghasi A.

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Qatar and Iran finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Qatar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Qatar
35%
Draws
53%
Iran
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Iran

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Iran come out ahead of Qatar on wins alone.
  • Iran are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Qatar Clean Sheet 20%
Iran Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qatar Iran
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 6 16
Draws 7 7
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 1.04 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.93 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2025 World Championship
Qatar vs Iran
1:0
Oct 15, 2024 World Championship
Iran vs Qatar
4:1
Feb 7, 2024 Asian Cup
Iran vs Qatar
2:3
Oct 17, 2023 Friendly International
Qatar vs Iran
0:4
Dec 31, 2018 Friendly International
Qatar vs Iran
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qatar Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Miguel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.34
Avg xA / game 0.22

Iran Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qatar 10 / 100
Iran 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qatar Iran

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Iran Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Qatar's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Iran let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Qatar stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Qatar VS Iran
0.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
25% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Qatar

(Home)
24 Jun
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3 : 1
Qatar
18 Jun
Canada
6 : 0
Qatar
13 Jun
Qatar
1 : 1
Switzerland
06 Jun
Qatar
0 : 0
El Salvador
28 May
Ireland
1 : 0
Qatar
Page 1 of 6

Iran

(Away)
27 Jun
Egypt
1 : 1
Iran
21 Jun
Belgium
0 : 0
Iran
16 Jun
Iran
2 : 2
New Zealand
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
29 May
Iran
3 : 1
Gambia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iran 10 7 2 1 19:8 23
2 Uzbekistan 10 6 3 1 14:7 21
3 United Arab Emirates 10 4 3 3 15:8 15
4 Qatar 10 4 1 5 17:24 13
5 Kyrgyzstan 10 2 2 6 12:18 8
6 North Korea 10 0 3 7 9:21 3
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fourth stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Korea 10 6 4 0 20:7 22
2 Jordan 10 4 4 2 16:8 16
3 Iraq 10 4 3 3 9:9 15
4 Oman 10 3 2 5 9:14 11
5 Palestine 10 2 4 4 10:13 10
6 Kuwait 10 0 5 5 7:20 5
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fourth stage)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Japan 10 7 2 1 30:3 23
2 Australia 10 5 4 1 16:7 19
3 Saudi Arabia 10 3 4 3 7:8 13
4 Indonesia 10 3 3 4 9:20 12
5 China 10 3 0 7 7:20 9
6 Bahrain 10 1 3 6 5:16 6
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Main)
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Fourth stage)