Sport Picks
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
Scotland
Challenge Cup 2025/2026 Palmerston Park, Dumfries 
Match Events
6'
6'
Guthrie K.
Assist: Smith L.
11'
11'
Stott J.
Assist: Smith L.
41'
41'
MacLeod R.
Assist: Ngwenya K.
AI Match Summary
Queen of the South in this Challenge Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
39%
30%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Dunfermline have won more games recently than Queen of the South.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Dunfermline arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Dunfermline, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Queen of the South Clean Sheet 20%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Queen of the South | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 14 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 16, 2025 Challenge Cup
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
4:3
Nov 29, 2025 Scottish Cup
Dunfermline vs Queen of the South
2:1
Apr 15, 2023 League One
Dunfermline vs Queen of the South
5:0
Feb 25, 2023 League One
Queen of the South vs Dunfermline
0:2
Dec 3, 2022 League One
Dunfermline vs Queen of the South
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Queen of the South Compare
Top Goalscorer Guthrie K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Stott J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Dunfermline Compare
Top Goalscorer Stewart B.
2 Goals Assists Leader MacLeod R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Queen of the South 32 / 100
Dunfermline 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Queen of the South Dunfermline
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick DUN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Queen of the South scored in 87% of their last 31 games.
Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.
Defensive concern: Dunfermline conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.
Solid form: Queen of the South remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Queen of the South VS Dunfermline
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Queen of the South
(Home) 18 Jul
Brora Rangers
0 : 3 Queen of the South
11 Jul
Queen of the South
1 : 2 Kelty Hearts
04 Jul
Queen of the South
1 : 2 Crusaders
27 Jun
Queen of the South
0 : 1 Connahs Q.
09 May
Stenhousemuir
3 : 2 Queen of the South
Page 1 of 7
11 Jul
Queen of the South
1 : 2 Kelty Hearts
04 Jul
Queen of the South
1 : 2 Crusaders
27 Jun
Queen of the South
0 : 1 Connahs Q.
05 May
Queen of the South
1 : 1 Stenhousemuir
25 Apr
Queen of the South
2 : 2 Montrose
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Dunfermline
(Away) 14 Jul
Dunfermline
4 : 1 Dumbarton
11 Jul
East Kilbride
3 : 0 Dunfermline
04 Jul
Kelty Hearts
0 : 3 Dunfermline
27 Jun
Clyde
1 : 2 Dunfermline
25 Jun
FC Botosani
1 : 0 Dunfermline
Page 1 of 6
11 Jul
East Kilbride
3 : 0 Dunfermline
04 Jul
Kelty Hearts
0 : 3 Dunfermline
27 Jun
Clyde
1 : 2 Dunfermline
25 Jun
FC Botosani
1 : 0 Dunfermline
23 May
Celtic
3 : 1 Dunfermline
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Arbroath3
Kelty Hearts2
Elgin City2
East Fife3
Alloa2
Airdrieonians3
Montrose2
Spartans1
Queen's Park2
Clyde1
Forfar Athletic2
Edinburgh City1
Raith5
Hamilton2
Queen of the South4
Dunfermline3
Hearts B0
St Johnstone1
Ross County4
Celtic B0
Ayr2
Peterhead1
East Kilbride1
Stranraer4
Cove Rangers1
Partick2
Dumbarton0
Inverness9
Stirling3
Morton2
Stenhousemuir2
Annan0
1/8-finals
Arbroath3
East Fife0
Airdrieonians3
Montrose1
Queen's Park2
Forfar Athletic0
Raith1
Queen of the South0
St Johnstone2
Ross County0
Ayr4
Stranraer1
Partick3
Inverness4
Stirling1
Stenhousemuir2
Quarter-finals
Arbroath2
Airdrieonians3
Queen's Park1
Raith2
St Johnstone3
Ayr4
Inverness1
Stenhousemuir0
Semi-finals
Airdrieonians1
Raith2
Ayr1
Inverness2
Final
Raith4
Inverness1