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Queensland Lions U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23

Australia Australia

NPL Queensland U23
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AI Match Summary

The NPL Queensland U23 game between Queensland Lions U23 and Moreton City Excelsior U23 finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Queensland Lions U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Queensland Lions U23
22%
Draws
60%
Moreton City Excelsior U23
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Moreton City Excelsior U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Moreton City Excelsior U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Moreton City Excelsior U23 taking it.
  • Regular NPL Queensland U23 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Queensland Lions U23 Clean Sheet 10%
Moreton City Excelsior U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Queensland Lions U23 Moreton City Excelsior U23
Matches Played 19 19
Wins 11 12
Draws 5 2
Losses 3 5
Goals Scored 2.63 2.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 NPL Queensland U23
Queensland Lions U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior U23
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Queensland Lions U23 18 / 100
Moreton City Excelsior U23 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Queensland Lions U23 Moreton City Excelsior U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Queensland Lions U23 scored in 89% of their last 19 outings.

Moreton City Excelsior U23 let in goals in 68% of their last 19 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Queensland Lions U23 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Queensland Lions U23 VS Moreton City Excelsior U23
2.63 Goals Scored 2.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Queensland Lions U23

(Home)
18 Jul
Gold Coast U23
1 : 0
Queensland Lions U23
12 Jul
Queensland Lions U23
1 : 1
Eastern Suburbs U23
04 Jul
Queensland Lions U23
1 : 2
Olympic FC U23
28 Jun
Queensland Lions U23
4 : 0
Wynnum Wolves U23
21 Jun
Queensland Lions U23
4 : 1
Rochedale U23
Page 1 of 4

Moreton City Excelsior U23

(Away)
18 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
3 : 0
Peninsula U23
14 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
1 : 0
QLD State Team U17
11 Jul
Moreton City Excelsior U23
6 : 1
Magic United TFA FC U23
04 Jul
Gold Coast Knights SC U23
1 : 2
Moreton City Excelsior U23
01 Jul
Rochedale U23
1 : 3
Moreton City Excelsior U23
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Rochedale U2319132451:2441
2Moreton City Excelsior U2319122552:2438
3Queensland Lions U2319115345:2038
4Gold Coast Knights SC U2318121547:2937
5Eastern Suburbs U231993738:2430
6Gold Coast U231892742:4029
7Olympic FC U2319721032:4223
8QLD State Team U1719711138:4822
9Peninsula U2319621134:4620
10Wynnum Wolves U2319621127:4320
11Brisbane City U2319531135:5218
12Magic United TFA FC U2319311514:6310
Promotion - NPL Queensland U23 (Play Offs)