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Queretaro U21 vs Toluca U21 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Martinez L.
49'
Virgen O.
59' Event
Kilani P.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX U21 2025/2026 game between Queretaro U21 and Toluca U21 finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Queretaro U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Queretaro U21
15%
Draws
71%
Toluca U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Queretaro U21 haven't matched Toluca U21's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Toluca U21's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga MX U21 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Toluca U21 here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Queretaro U21 Clean Sheet 14%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Queretaro U21 Toluca U21
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 20
Draws 0 0
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.36 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Liga MX U21
Queretaro U21 vs Toluca U21
0:2
Apr 4, 2026 Liga MX U21
Queretaro U21 vs Toluca U21
2:1
Oct 18, 2025 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Queretaro U21
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Queretaro U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kilani P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Toluca U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Navarrete L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Queretaro U21 10 / 100
Toluca U21 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Queretaro U21 Toluca U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca U21 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Queretaro U21 scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Toluca U21 conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Queretaro U21 remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Queretaro U21 VS Toluca U21
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Queretaro U21

(Home)
26 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas U21
2 : 4
Queretaro U21
20 Sept
Queretaro U21
0 : 2
Club Leon U21
11 Sept
Club Tijuana U21
3 : 1
Queretaro U21
29 Aug
Atlas U21
2 : 0
Queretaro U21
21 Aug
Queretaro U21
0 : 2
Toluca U21
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Toluca U21

(Away)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
20 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Santos Laguna U21
15 Sept
Puebla U21
0 : 1
Toluca U21
12 Sept
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Atlas U21
30 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 1
Juarez U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America U21 17 12 0 5 32:20 32
2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 17 10 0 7 26:19 32
3 Juarez U21 17 11 0 6 23:18 32
4 Monterrey U21 17 11 0 6 27:25 30
5 Pachuca U21 17 9 0 8 30:18 29
6 Toluca U21 17 9 0 8 32:22 29
7 Atlas U21 17 10 0 7 21:23 29
8 UNAM Pumas U21 17 11 0 6 23:26 28
9 Club Leon U21 17 9 0 8 18:16 27
10 Necaxa U21 17 10 0 7 23:25 26
11 Tigres UANL U21 17 8 0 9 20:18 24
12 Atletico San Luis U21 17 8 0 9 25:24 24
13 Club Tijuana U21 17 6 0 11 28:23 22
14 Cruz Azul U21 17 7 0 10 17:21 22
15 Puebla U21 17 5 0 12 17:22 20
16 Queretaro U21 17 8 0 9 20:27 20
17 Santos Laguna U21 17 5 0 12 16:25 20
18 Mazatlan FC U21 17 4 0 13 5:31 13
Promotion - Liga MX U21 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)