Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Queretaro vs Toluca

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio La Corregidora, Querétaro
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Vega A.
31'
Barbosa D.
45'
Mohamed A.

AI Match Summary

Toluca in this Liga MX matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toluca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Queretaro
20%
Draws
48%
Toluca
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toluca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Toluca lately — more wins on the board than Queretaro.
  • Toluca are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Toluca here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Queretaro Clean Sheet 15%
Toluca Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Queretaro Toluca
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 10 17
Draws 10 5
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga MX
Queretaro vs Toluca
1:2
Apr 4, 2026 Liga MX
Queretaro vs Toluca
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Queretaro
4:0
Feb 27, 2025 Liga MX
Toluca vs Queretaro
5:0
Oct 19, 2024 Liga MX
Queretaro vs Toluca
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Queretaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Homenchenko S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Toluca Compare

Top Goalscorer Helinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Queretaro 27 / 100
Toluca 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Queretaro Toluca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toluca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Queretaro found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Toluca let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Queretaro went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Queretaro VS Toluca
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Queretaro

(Home)
21 Sept
Queretaro
1 : 1
Club Leon
12 Sept
Club Tijuana
0 : 1
Queretaro
29 Aug
Atlas
1 : 3
Queretaro
22 Aug
Queretaro
1 : 2
Toluca
16 Aug
UNAM Pumas
0 : 0
Queretaro
Page 1 of 6

Toluca

(Away)
21 Sept
Toluca
2 : 3
Santos Laguna
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Toluca
5 : 2
Atlas
07 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Monterrey
03 Sept
Toluca
2 : 0
Club Leon
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toluca 9 6 1 2 20:9 19
2 Guadalajara Chivas 9 5 3 1 17:8 18
3 Club America 8 5 2 1 17:8 17
4 Cruz Azul 9 5 0 4 16:15 15
5 Queretaro 8 4 2 2 11:8 14
6 Club Tijuana 8 4 2 2 12:10 14
7 Club Leon 9 4 2 3 12:10 14
8 Puebla 9 4 2 3 11:11 14
9 Atlas 9 4 2 3 13:15 14
10 Monterrey 8 4 1 3 14:10 13
11 Pachuca 9 3 3 3 15:10 12
12 UNAM Pumas 9 3 3 3 12:13 12
13 Atletico San Luis 9 2 3 4 11:16 9
14 Atlante 9 1 5 3 8:13 8
15 Necaxa 9 2 2 5 10:16 8
16 Tigres UANL 9 1 4 4 9:13 7
17 Santos Laguna 9 2 1 6 9:15 7
18 Juarez 9 1 0 8 6:23 3
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)