Sport Picks
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo 
Match Events
14'
14'
Da Silva S.
(Penalty)
18'
18'
Sub
Brazionis In: Oyarzo Y.
Out: Brazionis
18'
18'
Sub
Correa L. In: Piegas A.
Out: Correa L.
AI Match Summary
The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Racing Montevideo and Cerro Largo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Racing Montevideo.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Racing Montevideo come out ahead of Cerro Largo on wins alone.
- Model gives Racing Montevideo a 42% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 20%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Racing Montevideo | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 7 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.96 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 17, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo
0:1
Oct 25, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo
2:2
Apr 28, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
1:1
Oct 5, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
0:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Racing Montevideo 42 / 100
Cerro Largo 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Racing Montevideo Cerro Largo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Racing Montevideo scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.
Defensive concern: Cerro Largo conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.
Away concern: Cerro Largo has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Racing Montevideo VS Cerro Largo
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Racing Montevideo
(Home) 04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1 Penarol
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1 Racing Montevideo
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0 Racing Montevideo
17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0 Racing Montevideo
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2 Boston River
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1 Penarol
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2 Boston River
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4 Central Esp.
31 Aug
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0 Albion
15 Aug
Racing Montevideo
2 : 0 Club Nacional
Page 1 of 3
Cerro Largo
(Away) 04 Oct
Danubio
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0 Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0 Cerro Largo
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Danubio
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0 Cerro Largo
04 Sept
Montevideo City
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
26 Aug
Plaza Colonia
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
15 Aug
Wanderers
1 : 1 Cerro Largo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool M. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Esp. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sp. | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Montevideo City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)
