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Racing Montevideo vs Penarol Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo
Racing Montevideo Logo

Racing Montevideo

1 - 1
FT
Penarol Logo

Penarol

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Olivera M.
25'
Fernandez N.
31' Event
Vazquez A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Racing Montevideo
30%
Draws
51%
Penarol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Racing Montevideo haven't matched Penarol's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 12%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Racing Montevideo Penarol
Matches Played 27 33
Wins 11 16
Draws 10 9
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.04 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.96 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol
1:1
Mar 29, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Racing Montevideo
1:2
Jan 20, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Penarol vs Racing Montevideo
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol
1:4
Mar 9, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Racing Montevideo
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Racing Montevideo Compare

Top Goalscorer Vazquez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Penarol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Racing Montevideo 27 / 100
Penarol 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Racing Montevideo Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Racing Montevideo scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Penarol has conceded goals in 73% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Racing Montevideo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Racing Montevideo VS Penarol
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Racing Montevideo

(Home)
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0
Racing Montevideo
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2
Boston River
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4
Central Esp.
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Penarol

(Away)
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1
Penarol
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1
Boston River
24 Sept
Danubio
1 : 1
Penarol
19 Sept
CA Cerro
1 : 2
Penarol
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)